Bitcoin analysis – First signs of weakness
3 min readThe stock market and with it Bitcoin (BTC) are showing the first signs of weakness. Yesterday, February 21, the US stock index S&P500 recorded its biggest daily loss in 2023. The BTC price is also not making any progress in the area of its annual high of USD 25,200 for the time being. The strength of the US dollar index DXY is increasingly acting as a headwind for the key crypto currency. The decreasing trading volume also does not speak for a breakout. The bearish divergence already discussed in the previous price analysis is also in play until the BTC price dynamically breaks out above 25,337 US dollars. The support at 23,824 US dollars must now be held with all strength at the daily closing price. Otherwise, there is a risk of a relapse to the make-or-break level at $23,367. The publication of today’s FOMC statement on the Fed’s key interest rate decision could provide a preliminary decision.
Bitcoin: Bullish price targets for the coming trading weeks
Bullish price targets: 24,269 $24,842, $25,214/25,338 USD, USD 26,500, USD 27,682/USD 28,089, 28,740/29,232 USD, USD 30,000, USD 30,656, USD 31,754, 32.403/32.938 USD
The bullish price trend of the previous weeks is currently faltering. Bulls and bears are at odds over the course of the coming weeks. So far, the buy-side has been able to defend the important red support area on an end-of-day basis.
The buy side must now try to reclaim the resistance at $24,269 as of the daily close. However, a decision will not be made until a breakout above the blue resistance zone. A 4-hour close above $25,338 would set the path to the golden pocket at $26,500. The stop-loss orders of highly leveraged short bets above the blue zone should also fuel the walkthrough.
Likewise, this resist acts as the last possible reversal point to see a pullback back towards $25,200 and below. If $26,500 is pulverized, there would be immediate space to the green resistance zone around $28,000.
However, the bulls are unlikely to resist closing the CME gap just above $29,000. For now, resistance at $29232 acts as the maximum bullish target.
Bearish bitcoin price targets
Bearish Targets: $23,824, $23,367, 22.610/22.310 USD, 21,927 USD, $21,643$20,897, 20,666 USD, USD 20,370, USD 19,703, 19.363/19.109 USD
The probability of a double top in the weekly chart has recently been strengthened by the multiple bounces on the price-limiting orange trend line. If Bitcoin slips below the cross support of the supertrend and horizontal support at $23,824, the consolidation will initially expand to $23,367. Bearish divergences on the 4 hour chart up to the daily chart support this scenario.
Abandoning the red support zone would be a warning shot for the bulls and would accelerate the sell-off again. $22,610 would come into view as the next key price level on the downside. At $22,610, the Golden Pocket is the first important price target for the seller side. Bitcoin would then be caught again in the range of the last few weeks.
If Bitcoin then corrects up to 22,310 US dollars and also gives up this support level, the sell-off potential expands directly to 21,643 US dollars. Here you can find Supertrend and EMA200 (blue) in the daily chart – the key level par excellence. The trend low of February 13th should not be fallen below, otherwise the chart picture would cloud over noticeably.
Below, BTC price would quickly fall back into the turquoise zone. The overarching red downtrend line is also currently running between $20,666 and $20,370. Here the bulls must initiate a new upward movement, which is why this zone represents the maximum bearish price target for this trading week. The course analysis of February 16 discussed which course targets below US$ 20,000 are relevant.
Looking at the indicators
Both the RSI and the MACD indicator are trending south again on a daily basis. The RSI is still trading at 57 above the neutral zone between 45 and 55. The buy side should defend this in order not to activate a fresh sell signal. The MACD indicator should also turn to sell again if the price correction continues. In the 4-hour chart, both indicators have already generated sell signals, which confirms the corrective tendency of the crypto key currency.
In the weekly chart, on the other hand, both indicators still have a long signal. These will only be in jeopardy if $20,370 is abandoned.
