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Bitcoin analysis – Has the BTC price found its bottom?

4 min read

After the bulls again prevented a dip towards $25,000 and initially formed a double bottom around $25,800, Bitcoin (BTC) rose back to the top of the trend channel around $28,500 amid an approaching deal on the US debt ceiling. Despite the continued strength of the US dollar index DXY, the crypto key currency temporarily dissolved the sideways range of the past few weeks in a bullish manner. Bitcoin is thus following the continued price strength of the Nasdaq technology index, which rose to a new 52-week high last week after remarkable quarterly figures from chip manufacturer Nvidia. Despite all the euphoria, the key crypto currency has so far remained trapped in its downtrend channel. Only a sustained upside would confirm the short-term trend reversal of the previous days.

Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis 05/30/2023
Course analysis based on the pair of values BTC/USD on Coinbase

Bitcoin: Bullish price targets for the coming trading weeks

Bullish price targets: $28,063, $28,596, $29,048/$29,216, $29,847/$30,060 $30,404/$30,615, $31,049, $31,755, $32.403/$32.938

The Bitcoin bulls were there in time again and heaved the BTC price towards the top of the trend channel at $28,473 at the beginning of the week. The retest of the breakout level at $27,560 was also textbook. At $27.709, Bitcoin is trading within striking distance of its weekly high. As long as the BTC price no longer slips below USD 27,238 and promptly breaks back northwards above the important price mark at USD 28,063, a renewed attempt to rise in the direction of the cross resistance at USD 28,596 should be planned. This mark now acts as a make-or-break level. In addition to the upper edge of the trend channel, the super trend in the daily chart also runs as a resist.

Only if Bitcoin can sustainably recapture $28,596 will the move towards the golden pocket of the current corrective move between $29,048 and $29,216 expand. If the buy side breaks out of this zone, the Bitcoin price is likely to advance to the blue resistance zone between $29,847 and $30,060. Most recently, the BTC course failed here several times. Only a dynamic price jump including stabilization above the psychological $30,000 mark, not dynamically heading south and overcoming this neuralgic zone, would set the sights on the next target area of ​​$30,615.

Most recently, the BTC course was unable to sustainably overcome the yellow resist area in April. If the buyer side can build up enough buying pressure to sustainably break through this zone as well, Bitcoin should rise above the yearly high of $31,061 towards $31,755. To break this resistance level as well, the bulls need to show further strength. Only when Bitcoin pulverizes this price level can a subsequent increase to the next relevant target range between US$ 32,403 and US$ 32,938 be planned. The old low of January 25, 2022 at 32,938 US dollars remains the maximum price target for the coming trading weeks.

Bitcoin: Bearish Bitcoin price targets for the coming trading weeks

Bearish price targets: $27,560/$27,413, $27,238, $26,686/$26,543, $26.151/$25.813 $25,304/$25,000, $24,389/$23,919 $22,814/$22,519, $21,977

In the past trading week, the seller failed again to break through the purple support zone between US$ 26,151 and US$ 25,813. However, as long as Bitcoin continues to trade in the corrective channel, the corrective scenario towards $25,000 is still possible. Should the crypto lead currency fall back below the green breakout area around $27,500 and thus abandon the EMA200 (blue) in the 4-hour chart, the chances of renewed price consolidation increase.

The buyer side should try to prevent more than a price dip up to 27,238 US dollars. If Bitcoin corrects below this price level and thus gives up the EMA50 (orange) again, the probability of a renewed fall back towards the turquoise zone between US$ 26,686 and US$ 26,583 increases significantly. The bears are likely to take advantage of this weakness again and sell BTC price back down to the area around the recent historical lows near $25,813.

If the BTC price does not dynamically bounce north for the third time, a retest of the blue support zone between $25,304 and $25,000 is becoming increasingly likely. If Bitcoin reaches this important target area, the must-goal of the movement would have been completed. A bullish countermovement should therefore be planned for. However, a short-term spike below this key area to the red support zone between $24,389 and $23,919 cannot be ruled out. In particular, a weakness in the US stock indices combined with a rising US dollar index would be seen as a warning signal.

If, contrary to expectations, Bitcoin does not find a footing here and slips out of the trend channel to the south, the bullish chart picture would cloud over further. A dynamic sell-off below the red support area is likely to propel the bearish trend move into the $22,814-$22,519 zone. At most, a relapse up to US$ 21,977 could no longer be ruled out.

Looking at the indicators

The RSI as well as the MACD in the 4-hour chart are currently trending slightly south again. A renewed abandonment of the $27,500 area could trigger fresh sell signals on both indicators. On a daily basis, both indicators have recovered and the MACD has generated a first buy signal, but this has not yet been confirmed in the long term. The RSI indicator has also failed to jump above 55 so far and is trading in the neutral zone for the time being.

In the weekly chart, fresh sell signals have so far been averted by the price recovery in the last few days. However, both signal lines in the MACD continue to converge. However, the RSI indicator has so far prevented a fall back into the neutral zone and continues to trade in long mode with a value of 57. Overall, this constellation could give the Bitcoin price a further boost if the key crypto currency should resolve the downward trend channel in a bullish way.


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All content in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way serves as investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies, commodities and stocks is very risky and can lead to capital losses.