BTC Analysis & Trading Tips: Bitcoin’s Banging on Resistance – Is It Time to Moon or Nuke?

by James Frost

June 25, 2025

in Analysis

Reading Time: 7 mins read

Table of Contents

Alright degenerates, grab your overpriced coffee and sit down — Bitcoin’s 4H chart is looking spicy AF.

The king of crypto is currently trying to break out of that juicy descending trendline, flirting around the $106,000 level like it’s that toxic ex you know you shouldn’t text… but you still do.

Bitcoin price analysis 25/06/2025. Source: TradingView

What the Bitcoin Chart’s Screaming

Resistance Level: ~$106,539 — This baby’s been smacked down from here a couple of times, so it’s not a joke. Bulls need to show up HARD if we’re gonna flip it.
Support Zones to Watch:
- $104,723 – EMA50 line, acting like a cushion lately.
- $102,874 and $100,487 – Previous demand zones. If price gets bitch-slapped back down, this is where we catch it.
MACD: Looking juicy. The MACD line (blue) just crossed above the signal line (orange) and is cruising upwards like it just did a line of rocket fuel. Momentum’s with the bulls — for now.
Candle Structure: Series of higher lows forming, so the bulls are stacking pressure. If we break and close above that descending trendline, strap in.

Possible Scenarios (a.k.a. “Choose Your Own Bullshit Adventure”)

1. Breakout Like a Rockstar

Bitcoin breaks $106.5K with volume.
Retests it as support.
Next stops? $108,738 and maybe a juicy swipe at $111,000.
Long entry idea: on successful retest of $106,000 with confirmation candle. SL: $104.5K. TP: ride it to Valhalla.

2. Fakeout, Then Rekt

Price spikes above the trendline but gets denied like a broke Tinder date.
Back down to retest EMA50 or even $102,874.
You panic sell, then cry two hours later. Don’t be that guy.

3. Crab Season Continues

Price just ranges between $104K–$106K till CPI data, ETF inflows, or Saylor tweets something good again.

Trading Tips (That Might Save Your Ass)

Let’s break down some actual entry setups, stop-loss placements, and take-profit (TP) ideas like a real trader — not some moonboy YOLO’ing calls on Twitter.

Setup #1: Breakout Retest Long

Entry: Wait for a confirmed 4H candle close above $106,539, then get in on the retest of that broken resistance.
Stop-Loss: Just below the breakout zone – set it tight at $105,200. If it nukes back into the range, you’re out before the pain.
Take Profit Zones:
- TP1: $108,738 – obvious next resistance.
- TP2: $111,000 – psychological barrier.
- TP3 (Degen Edition): $115K+ if bulls go beast mode and ETFs keep gobbling BTC like it’s sushi at happy hour.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Clean 1:2.5+ setup. No-brainer if volume confirms the breakout.

Setup #2: Trendline Fade (aka the “Short the Hopium”)

Entry: If BTC hits that trendline ($106.5K) and prints a fat-ass rejection wick, consider a quick short.
Confirmation: Look for bearish divergence on MACD or RSI on 1H/4H TF.
Stop-Loss: Above the wick high, so around $107,200.
TP Zones:
- TP1: $104,700 (EMA50).
- TP2: $102,874 (support).
- TP3: $100,487 if bulls fully bail.
Caution: This trade is for quick fingers and sharper knives. Don’t snooze, or you’ll donate to someone else’s Lambo fund.

Setup #3: Range Play for Crabby Days

Range: $104,700 – $106,500.
Buy: Near $104,700, set SL at $103,800.
Sell: Near $106,400, set SL at $107,000.
Great for low-volatility days when BTC’s just crab-walking sideways like it’s hungover.
Works best with tight leverage and sniper entries.

General Tips to Not Blow Your Account (Again)

Use Alerts Not Your Feelings: Your gut lies. Set alerts at breakout/breakdown zones and walk away. Emotions are expensive AF.
Position Size Like You’ve Got a Brain: 1–3% risk per trade max. Stop swinging 100x leverage unless you hate money.
EMA50 Is a Magnet: BTC loves to bounce off it, hug it, dance with it — watch it for intraday structure.
MACD is Popping: But always confirm with price action. That bullish cross is your green light — but no blind longs.
Volume Confirms Moves: A breakout without volume is like a Tinder date with no profile pics — don’t trust it.

Bonus: Degen Checklist Before Entry

Is price above/below EMA50?
Any major news/FUD incoming? (Looking at you, Fed…)
Is the MACD histogram increasing?
Is Bitcoin dominance rising or dumping?
Are you sober enough to click “Buy”?

If you answered “Yes” to at least 4 of these, you might actually be making a responsible trade. Congrats, you’re not a total degen. Yet.

Zoom Out Before You Flip Out: This is just a 4H chart. The macro trend is still bullish unless we lose $98K — chill, Degen.
Use Alerts, Not Emotions: Set your alert at $106.6K and walk away. Stop doom-scrolling.
Don’t FOMO Long After Breakout: Wait for the retest or you’ll ride the wick of doom.
MACD Divergence? If histogram starts curving down with price pushing higher — consider it a warning from the crypto gods.

Final Thoughts: Is This the Move?

Right now, Bitcoin’s loading the gun, but hasn’t pulled the trigger yet. The trendline’s cocky, but bulls are horny — MACD supports the motion. One solid push and we’re looking at fireworks.

Just don’t get greedy, use tight stop-losses, and respect the levels. If you’re a bull, wait for the confirmation. If you’re a bear… well, good luck fading the MACD on a Friday.

And remember — paper hands get rugged, diamond hands get Lambos.

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James Frost

I trade cryptocurrencies based on fundamentals, TA and indicators. It started as a hobby, then part time and currently full time for more than 2 years. This kind of trading and analysis is endless daily work. This means throwing all previous analyzes in the trash and starting day-to-day again. My previous experiences: CryptoSvet.cz