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The well-known pseudonymous crypto analyst Ali Martinez has detected a “unique” bullish signal for Bitcoin. According to his analysis, Bitcoin could be gearing up for a massive rally after seemingly decoupling from global liquidity—an important metric that tracks the volume of money flows across the world.
Rising Global Liquidity Is Usually Bullish for Bitcoin
Many financial analysts rely on global liquidity trends to predict asset prices. Historically, for Bitcoin and other high-risk assets, price increases have often correlated with an increase in global liquidity.
According to Ali Martinez, global liquidity has been on the rise since Q3 2024, yet Bitcoin has remained in a defined trading range over the past few months. Martinez states:
“Global liquidity is on the rise again, and Bitcoin has historically been highly correlated to it. However, since July, BTC appears to be lagging behind, which could signal a unique buying opportunity!“
In simpler terms, Bitcoin typically follows the flow of global liquidity, but this time, it hasn’t—an unusual market dynamic that could indicate a strong entry point for investors.
Bitcoin Needs to Hold Above a Key Price Level
At present, Martinez believes that Bitcoin must remain above the average entry price of short-term investors. These are investors who have purchased Bitcoin within the past six months.
However, this average entry price sits at $92,000, while Bitcoin is currently trading well below this level. According to Martinez, this divergence could indicate a risky scenario for Bitcoin.
A Potentially Dangerous Development for Bitcoin
It’s evident that Bitcoin is currently in a weaker phase. Bulls have struggled to push the price above $90,000, and now, Bitcoin appears to be searching for a new support level.
For now, the tentative floor sits around $78,000, but momentum hasn’t improved since hitting that level. If Bitcoin fails to regain strength, it could lead to further downward pressure on the price.
Trump’s Bitcoin Announcement Adds to Uncertainty
On Sunday, Donald Trump announced the creation of a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” However, the details surrounding this reserve remain unclear.
At this stage, the announcement appears largely symbolic, possibly meant to signal American support for the crypto industry—but without substantial action behind it.
With the lack of concrete details, the market remains in wait-and-see mode. Additionally, there are broader macroeconomic concerns weighing on Bitcoin’s future trajectory.
Macroeconomic Risks and Recession Fears in the U.S.
Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. economy is facing headwinds, with recent economic data signaling potential weakness.
This has triggered renewed fears of a recession in the United States, which could impact investment decisions across all asset classes—including Bitcoin.
Conclusion: A Unique Opportunity or a Risky Bet?
In summary, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture:
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On the bullish side, the rising global liquidity trend usually signals price growth for Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin has yet to react, which some analysts see as a unique buying opportunity.
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On the bearish side, Bitcoin is struggling to hold key price levels, and uncertainty in the broader financial markets could create additional downward pressure.
Whether now is truly the best time to buy Bitcoin remains debatable. Investors may need to weigh the potential for a breakout rally against the risks of continued market volatility. One thing is for sure: the coming weeks will be crucial for Bitcoin’s next big move.
