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Bitcoin (BTC) is moving slowly but steadily toward its all-time high (ATH). The market remains calm for now, while investors eagerly watch whether the largest cryptocurrency will finally break through or if a correction is imminent.
Low Retail Investor Participation: Opportunity or Risk?
According to data from the blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shared by analyst Carl Runefelt, a remarkable trend is emerging in the Bitcoin market: Retail investor participation is currently exceptionally low. This is noteworthy because, in the past, small investors have often been a crucial driving force behind bull markets.
Their absence now presents two possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s future price movement:
- Positive Scenario: The current hesitation among retail investors could be seen as untapped potential. If these investors enter the market, it could trigger a new phase of the bull rally. A breakthrough above the all-time high (ATH) could boost market confidence, attract new buyers, and potentially lead to a parabolic price surge.
- Negative Scenario: If Bitcoin drops below the $100,000 mark, it could significantly impact market sentiment. Such a decline might trigger a downward correction and further weaken confidence in the market.
Historical Patterns and Future Predictions
Whether Bitcoin can break through remains a hotly debated topic among analysts. Crypto analyst James van Straten sees strong parallels to 2017, when Bitcoin reached a new all-time high a staggering 77 times. According to Van Straten, Bitcoin is currently in a classic four-year cycle, primarily driven by the halving event.
If this pattern repeats, Van Straten predicts that Bitcoin’s price could rise to $186,000 by Q1 2025—a 75% increase from the current price. In the long term, he even considers a price target of $1.7 million by the end of the year possible, though he emphasizes that this is an extremely optimistic scenario.
Bitcoin Price Could Surge by 74% According to Key Indicators
After Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high (ATH) last Monday, the market seems to have settled down slightly. However, a crucial question remains among crypto investors: Will Bitcoin reach new highs again?
According to on-chain data from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode, this scenario is quite possible. The Mayer Multiple (MM) suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow before being considered “overbought.”
What is the Mayer Multiple?
The Mayer Multiple (MM) is an indicator that measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s current price and its 200-day moving average (200DMA). It is used to identify overheated or undervalued markets:
- A value above 2.4 indicates an overheated market
- A value below 0.8 suggests an undervalued market
Currently, the MM stands at 1.37, meaning Bitcoin is trading 37% above its 200DMA. While this represents a healthy increase, it remains far from the “overheated” threshold. Bitcoin would only be considered overbought at a price of $181,000. This implies a potential upside of 74% based on the current price of approximately $104,000.
Diverging Opinions on Bitcoin’s Price Outlook
The question remains: Will Bitcoin actually reach $181,000? While Glassnode provides data, it does not make future predictions. Analysts, however, hold divided opinions.
Crypto analyst Kevin Svenson recently stated in a YouTube analysis that Bitcoin could rise to $140,000 before a significant correction occurs. Svenson bases his expectations on historical Bitcoin cycles, predicting that the current bull market could last until the end of 2025. According to his models, the next major resistance zone is between $124,000 and $140,000, after which a correction is likely.
Risks of a Market Correction
Despite the potential for further price increases, it is equally important to consider possible downturns.
- The lower threshold of the Mayer Multiple, which indicates an overbought market, is around $60,000. This means a 42% correction would be required to reach this level.
- The neutral zone stands at approximately $75,000, which could act as strong support in a declining market.
While Bitcoin’s short-term direction remains uncertain, both bullish and bearish scenarios are still on the table.
