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Bitcoin has risen above the $100,000 mark again and started a strong recovery after Donald Trump made a U-turn and postponed his import tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The following announcement from Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minister of Canada, shows that Trump is currently engaged in tough negotiations. In this context, the tariffs have been suspended for at least 30 days.
Protection of borders
It is clear that Donald Trump attaches great importance to protecting the US borders. He had already previously reached an agreement with Mexico to tighten border controls and combat drug smuggling. Now he is concluding a similar agreement with Canada.
Claudia Sheinbaum, the President of Mexico, made a similar statement on February 3.
Sostuvimos una buena conversación con el presidente Trump con mucho respeto a nuestra relación y la soberanía; llegamos a una serie de acuerdos:
1.México reforzará la frontera norte con 10 mil elementos de la Guardia Nacional de forma inmediata, para evitar el tráfico de drogas…
— Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (@Claudiashein) February 3, 2025
“Our teams are starting work today on two fronts: security and trade. They are suspending import tariffs for one month,” Sheinbaum said.
Donald Trump does not want to make any final statements on this yet. According to him, the tariffs could “still come into force” , which of course is intended to strengthen his negotiating position.
President Trump says the US and Mexico have not agreed on tariffs and they could still go into effect. He says Mexico agreed to send 10,000 National Guard officers to guard the border and stem the flow of fentanyl. He says talks with Canada are ongoing https://t.co/wALUHcJRMC pic.twitter.com/mRPKp4PqIJ
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) February 3, 2025
Import tariffs for China remain in place for the time being
For China, the 10 percent import tariff will remain in place for the time being. However, according to the Wall Street Journal, China is also open to negotiations with Donald Trump.
Based on anonymous sources, the Wall Street Journal reports that China’s first offer could be to restore the Phase 1 trade deal from Trump’s first term.
This agreement required China to purchase $200 billion worth of US exports within the first two years.
Polymarket currently puts the probability that Trump will completely lift tariffs on Mexico before early March at 24%. For Canada, the probability is 22% .
China is in a worse position, with a probability of only 9%. The probability that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will be introduced within the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency is currently at 17%.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $99,307, showing signs of recovery after a recent sharp drop to $92,000. The price has rebounded strongly but is now facing resistance at $100,000-$102,000, where selling pressure is increasing.
RSI & Momentum:
- RSI at 65, indicating slightly bullish momentum but nearing overbought conditions.
- A break above 70 RSI could confirm further upside, while rejection may lead to a pullback.
Bitcoin needs to break and hold above $100K for a continuation toward $105K-$108K. Otherwise, a rejection could push BTC back to $96K-$94K support levels.
Trading Tips:
✅ Long Entry: If BTC breaks $100K, target $105K-$108K.
✅ Short Entry: If BTC gets rejected at $100K, short towards $96K-$94K.
✅ Risk Management: Stop-loss below $98K for longs, above $102K for shorts.
📢 Breakout watch: If BTC closes above $102K, expect further bullish continuation!
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