Table of Contents
Bitcoin is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel, showing strong bullish momentum over the past several months. The price action indicates a pattern of impulsive breakouts followed by periods of consolidation within structured channels, highlighting a consistent upward trend.
As of now, BTC is testing the lower boundary of the upper ascending channel, which serves as a key support zone. The next movement will determine whether BTC bounces for another leg up or breaks down, leading to a deeper correction.
Key Technical Observations
1. Ascending Channels & Trend Continuation
Bitcoin has been following a clear upward trajectory, forming two bullish channels. The first, formed between July and November 2024, saw a gradual climb before BTC broke out and accelerated into a second, wider channel. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced higher volatility, but the overall trend remains intact. As long as BTC respects this structure, the macro outlook remains bullish.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
BTC is currently at a critical support level between $96,000 – $97,000, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. If this support holds, Bitcoin could continue its move toward higher resistance levels. The key upside targets lie at $105,000 – $107,000, followed by the upper channel resistance at $110,000 – $112,000. A potential breakout beyond the channel could push BTC toward $120,000. However, if support fails, BTC may correct toward $92,500 – $94,000 or even $88,000 – $90,000.
3. Volume & Market Sentiment
Volume analysis is crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next move. Declining volume suggests the market is consolidating, with neither bulls nor bears in full control. If buying volume increases at $96,000, it could confirm strong demand and a potential rebound. On the other hand, a breakdown with high volume would indicate strong bearish momentum, possibly leading to a deeper correction.
Trading Strategies & Risk Management
🔵 Bullish Scenario (BTC Holds Support & Moves Higher)
If BTC holds $96,000, it could trigger a bullish continuation toward $105,000 as the first target, followed by $110,000 – $112,000 at the upper boundary of the channel. A breakout above $112,000 could lead to parabolic movement toward $120,000+. Traders should look for bullish confirmation signals, such as candlestick patterns and increasing volume before entering long positions.
🎯 Trading Plan:
- Entry: Buy between $96,500 – $97,000 if support holds.
- Stop-Loss: Below $95,000 to minimize risk.
- Take-Profit: $105,000 – $112,000, with a partial exit at resistance levels.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (BTC Breaks Below Support & Corrects Lower)
If Bitcoin loses $96,000, a breakdown could lead to a retest of $92,500 – $94,000, with further downside risk toward $88,000 – $90,000. This could be a deeper retracement before resuming the uptrend. Traders looking to short should wait for a confirmed breakdown with high selling volume.
🎯 Trading Plan:
- Entry: Short below $96,000, targeting $92,500 – $94,000.
- Stop-Loss: Above $97,500 to avoid a fakeout.
- Take-Profit: $92,500 – $90,000, depending on price action.
Bitcoin Price Predictions
📈 Bullish Prediction (Most Likely – 65% Probability)
As long as BTC holds the ascending channel, we expect Bitcoin to continue its uptrend toward $105,000 – $110,000. If BTC breaks $112,000, momentum could accelerate toward $120,000+, marking a new phase of bullish expansion.
Bearish Prediction (Less Likely – 35% Probability)
If Bitcoin fails to hold $96,000, a corrective move toward $92,500 – $94,000 is likely. Losing $92,000 could extend the retracement to $88,000 – $90,000, where stronger demand might emerge. This would not necessarily end the bull trend but could delay the next leg higher.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis Final Outlook & Key Takeaways
Bitcoin remains in a macro uptrend, but the $96,000 support level is crucial for trend continuation. A bounce from here would confirm a move toward $110,000 – $120,000, while a breakdown could lead to a temporary correction before resuming the bullish cycle. Traders should watch volume, trendline reactions, and key support levels before making major decisions.
Where do you see BTC heading next? Will we break $110K or correct lower first?
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