Bitcoin is facing a decisive moment, as its price tests a key support zone that could determine the continuation of the current bull market. Analysts are warning that the cryptocurrency’s rally may not be out of danger just yet, with a real possibility of a correction toward the $60,000 range.
On April 7, Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level in four months, hitting $74,500, as investors began shedding risk assets following a renewed escalation in U.S. trade war by Donald Trump.
Bitcoin Approaches a Crucial Technical Level
Currently, Bitcoin is testing the 50-week exponential moving average (50EMA)—a level that has historically acted as a key boundary between bull and bear markets.
According to market analyst Ted Pillows and several other experts, it is crucial for Bitcoin to close this week above the 50EMA, which currently sits around $77,500.
Failing to hold this line could trigger a potential retracement to the $69,000–$70,000 zone, Pillows warns. This price range corresponds to Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from the 2021 market cycle.
He also notes that a further decline toward $67,000, which aligns with the average entry price of institutional firm Strategy, is still within the realm of possibility.
The Maximum Pain Point for Bitcoin Is Near $69,000
In the short term, Bitcoin appears to have found temporary support around $74,000. This level corresponds to a notable cost basis cluster, where approximately 50,000 BTC were acquired.
Data from Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates that this is the first significant cost basis cluster below the $80,000 mark.
Up until March 10, this investor group was steadily increasing their average entry price, suggesting confidence in the market at that time.
Between $74,000 and $70,000, investors currently hold around 175,000 BTC, creating a potentially strong support buffer for the price of Bitcoin.
The largest accumulation cluster is located at $71,600, where 41,000 BTC are held. This price zone could serve as a key defense line in case of further downside.
What Happens If $74,000 Support Breaks?
If Bitcoin fails to maintain support at $74,000, this level becomes a crucial area to monitor. A breakdown here could lead to increased selling pressure and further dips toward key historic price zones.
While many remain optimistic about the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin, the current market signals point to elevated risk and heightened volatility in the coming weeks.
Traders and investors alike should keep a close eye on macro events, technical indicators, and investor behavior—as these factors will likely determine Bitcoin’s next major move.
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