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So your portfolio’s been bleeding like a stuck pig, huh? You opened your app, saw Bitcoin at $105K, choked on your espresso and yelled “WTF, I thought we were mooning!” Chill. Before you dump your bags and go full degen into Pepe derivatives, let’s actually look at what the smart money’s doing.
Spoiler alert: they’re stacking, not panicking.
Here’s your no-bullshit, on-chain breakdown of what’s really going on under Bitcoin’s hood right now. Buckle up, baby.
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Are Dropping Harder Than Your Ex’s IQ
Let’s start with the obvious: exchange reserves are in free-fall mode. From over 3.2 million BTC chilling on exchanges in mid-2024, we’re now scraping near 2.4 million BTC as of June 2025.
What does that mean in real terms?
It means people ain’t leaving their Bitcoin lying around to be sold. They’re pulling that sh*t off exchanges like it’s the last beer at a frat party — straight into cold storage.
Supply is shrinking, and if you’ve read Econ 101, that’s usually bullish AF.
Netflows Are Bleeding Out — Bulls Are Quietly Winning
Zoom in on the netflow chart and you’ll notice something juicy: outflows > inflows for most of the last month.
Translation: whales, institutions, and maybe even that Reddit guy with diamond balls are yanking BTC off exchanges, not sending it in to sell.
Yeah, we had a couple green bars (hi, June 10–13), but they’re weak sauce compared to the tsunami of red — especially around early June when over 20,000 BTC was withdrawn in a single day.
TL;DR: Smart money’s stacking while you’re doomscrolling.
NUPL Says: Still Profitable, Still Bullish
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) hovers around 0.547, which is the “belief/optimism” zone. We’re not at euphoria yet — thank f*ck — but the market isn’t panicking either.
It’s kind of like the “talking stage” in a relationship. Sh*t could go either way — but the signs are good.
If BTC dumps to $90K, people are still in the green. If it rockets to $150K, the smug tweets will return. So yeah — no mass capitulation, just some good old consolidation.
Coin Days Destroyed? Meh. Chill Activity = Diamond Hands
The CDD chart looks like a heart monitor after a Red Bull — spiky AF. But zoom out and it’s clear: no major coins from ancient wallets are being dumped.
This means OGs (the ones who mined BTC while listening to Linkin Park) aren’t panic selling. They’re chilling.
Low CDD = low stress = strong hands.
Puell Multiple: Miners Ain’t Dumping (Yet)
At 0.89, the Puell Multiple is in a historically good buy zone. That means miner revenue is relatively low, and they’re not spamming the sell button.
No miner panic = no death spiral = the hash gods are pleased.
In fact, many miners are HODLing, waiting for juicier prices — just like you should be.
Stock-to-Flow Screams Bullish
Look at that last chart. The Stock-to-Flow ratio just hit 59.4K, which is insanely high. If you’re a fan of this model (yeah, we know it’s controversial), it implies massive upward pressure on BTC’s fair value.
Basically, supply is tightening like a nun’s… you get it — and that’s usually rocket fuel.
Conclusion: Still Early. Still Bullish. Don’t Be a Dumba*s
Here’s the deal:
Yeah, we’re dancing around $105K and it feels underwhelming. But zoom out. This is accumulation season, not exit season. You don’t quit at halftime — you double down.
So either you hold, buy the f*cking dip, or go cry into your altcoin bags while real Bitcoiners ride this train to $200K+.
Your choice. But I know where I stand.
- Cold wallet? Loaded.
- Hands? Diamond.
- Memes? Ready.
Let’s f*cking go.
- Bitcoin’s Ready to Blow… Upwards? - July 3, 2025
- Ethereum’s $5K Dream: Breakout or Breakdown? - July 2, 2025
- Ethereum’s Not Dead Yet: On-Chain Data Screams Rebound & Trading Tips - June 27, 2025
