BTC/USDT trend analysis: a strong correction has occurred
3 min readTable of Contents
TL:DR Breakdown
- Bitcoin (BTC) has corrected its previous rally to a low of 17,610.86 USD, taking trading volume down with it.
- Volatility continues to increase as traders try to agree on a price.
- If volatility increases further and trading volume fails to increase, expect this correction to continue.
Overview (48-hour)
BTC/USDT opened the period’s trading at 18,630.98 USD, with a high of 18,965.90 USD (+1.80%) and a low of 17,810.86 USD. At the time of writing, BTC/USDT has risen again to 18,440.01 USD but remains 1.04% below the period’s opening.
The total trading volume for BTC/USDT up until the time of writing is 74,168 BTC compared to 65,341 BTC for the same period yesterday, representing a decrease in trading volume of 13.51%.
The historical Volatility Index (HVI) on the 1D reads 47.14 (medium) at the time of writing compared to 47.22 (medium) on yesterday’s close.
Price Analysis
BTC/USDT started the trading period in a attempting to breakout to a new high using a previously held support zone between 18,555.63 USD and 18,399.41 USD. It then continued to attempt to breakout 4 more times before the bulls gave way to the bears and a correction of the previously rally followed.
The correction saw BTC/USDT fall to the period’s low of 17,610.86 USD. A short re-corrective rally then ensued, before the price then stabilized at 18,440.01, where it rests at the time of writing.
Volume Analysis
Trading volume for BTC/USDT opened at 4,779 BTC, with a mean value of 2,178 BTC from the previous period. Mean trading volume saw a steady decline to an average of 1,400 BTC per candlesticks, corresponding with the attempted breakouts in price.
This preceded a strong spike in trading volume to 6,187 BTC which corresponded with BTC/USDT’s correction. At the time of writing, trading volume has settled at 1,020 BTC, with the mean value at 2,064 BTC.
On Balance Volume (OBV) remained fairly stable through the period’s trading, before dipping during BTC/USDT’s correction. However, Accumulation/Distribution (Acc/Distr) has maintained a steady increase since open (see white circles on chart above).
Volatility Analysis
At opening, HVI for BTC/USDT was 6.45 (medium). Throughout the period, volatility increased, with HVI moving to a high of 13.72 (high) before settling at 11.10 (high) at the time of writing.
It is also worth noting that HVI for BTC/USDT briefly touched 3.67 (low) during the period too, which corresponded with price moving back into the previously established support zone, further confirming its relevance.
Price prediction
Despite an number of attempts, BTC/USDT failed to set a new high during the trading period, attempting no less than four separate times to do so. However, it used the previously established support as a base for these attempts which further confirm its relevance.
The correction was swiftly re-corrected with price stabilizing once again in this support zone. With OBV and Acc/Distr falling and leveling off respectively, as well as volatility increasing, expect BTC/USDT to range using the support zone as a base until the next injection of trading volume.
In the news
The Chaiman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, Jay Clayton, will resign at the end of the year.
The CEO of investment fund Pantera Capital has said that Bitcoin’s bull run is very sustainable.
In a remarkable move, China has asked other members of the G20 to be open to CBDCs.
