BTC/USDT trend analysis: volume is falling

TL:DR Breakdown

• Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a high of 18,965.90 USD and is settled at 18,779.64 USD at the time of writing.
• A new support zone has been established between 18,555.63 USD and 18,399.41 USD which has been confirmed several times.
• Although reaching a new high, trading volume has fallen and momentum weakened.

Note: The analysis below use Binance’s BTC/USDT pair and TradingView’s BTC/USDT 30m (Binance) chart.

Overview (48-hour)

BTC/USDT opened trading at 18,116.85 USD, with a high of 18,965.90 USD (+4.69%) and a low of 17,681.36 USD. At the time of writing, BTC/USDT has risen again to 18,779.64 USD (+3.66%), sitting 2.49% above the high/low average of 18,323.63 USD. 

The total trading volume for BTC/USDT up until the time of writing is 65,341 BTC, compared to 88,423 BTC for the same period yesterday, representing a decline in trading volume of 26.1%.

The historical Volatility Index (HVI) on the 1D reads 47.22 (medium) at the time of writing compared to 46.14 on yesterday’s close.

Price Analysis

After opening at 18,116.85 USD, BTC/USDT corrected briefly to an established support zone between 17,774.68 USD and 17,424.57 USD, settling at around the 17,700 USD mark before rallying again to the period’s high.

Another support zone was established between 18,555.63 USD and 18,399.41 USD which has been confirmed several times.

Volume

BTC/USDT entered the trading period with trading volume at 3,331 BTC, above the previous period’s mean of 2,417 BTC. Trading volume remained and oscillated between 3,331 BTC and the period’s trading volume low of 841 BTC until the time of writing where it settled at 2,750 BTC.

There have been a few spikes in trading volume above this range, most notably to 6,334 BTC as price broke out towards its high (see blue arrow on chart above). The mean trading volume at the time of writing stands at 1,713 BTC.

Both On Balance Volume (OBV) and Accumulation/Distribution (Acc/Distr) trended upwards preceding this spike before leveling off as BTC/USDT formed it’s higher support zone.

Volatility

HVI started this period off at 11.8 (high) before declining to a low of 4.7 for several hours. It then oscillated between 5.0 and 10.0 (medium zone) for the rest of the period, breaching 10.0 twice as BTC/USDT broke out towards its high.

At the time of writing, HVI has settled at 7.0 (medium)

Price Prediction

Despite the new high set in this period, with trading volume significantly lower than the previous period and OBV and Acc/Distr tapering off, BTC/USDT has lost momentum to continue the rally past its high at least for the short term.

With HVI at 7.03 (medium), the strength of the current price cannot be concluded. In such a case, expect BTC/USDT to continue sideways, with the newly established support in play.

In the news

Google is set to release a new digital wallet called Plex.

Analysts say Bitcoin’s supply shortage is overwhelmingly due to Paypal’s entry.

In a remarkable move, China has asked other members of the G20 to be open to CBDCs.

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