Cardano analysis
3 min readCardano has been able to move north in the last few trading days. The ADA course benefited from a recent increase in the probability of Ripple Inc. winning the ongoing lawsuit against the SEC. In a weekly comparison, the Cardano price gains around 5 percentage points and is again trading above the moving average of the last 50 trading days (EMA50) (orange). The accumulation through large Cardano holders is also noteworthy. According to crypto analytics firm Santiment, crypto whales increased their ADA token count by more than 1 billion in the last 5 months of trading. In view of the beginning of the last development phase “Voltaire”, major investors seem to be increasingly bullish about the future price development of the layer 1 ecosystem. However, Cardano is still trading below the moving average of the last 200 days (EMA200) (blue). The buyer side must now do everything possible to dynamically recapture the area around 0.40 US dollars in order to further brighten the chart picture. Meanwhile, a dip below the orange support zone around 0.34USD would seriously jeopardize hopes for bullish price action in the coming weeks.
Cardano: Bullish price targets for the next few weeks
Bullish price targets: 0.40 USD,0.43/0.44 USD, 0.47 USD, 0.50/0.52 USD, 0.55 USD, 0.59 USD
Encouraged by the increased likelihood of not being classified as a security by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Cardano stabilized in the 0.34 USD area and was then able to rise to a new monthly high. However, to confirm the positive bias, the ADA price must first stabilize above the green resist zone at 0.40 USD. If this strong resistance area is recaptured, Cardano should rally back towards the February high at 0.43 USD.
If the buy side succeeds in dynamically recapturing the red resistance area, the market structure becomes increasingly bullish. The golden pocket at 0.47 USD comes into view as a target area. If the overarching 23 Fibonacci retracement at just under 0.48 USD is then also overcome, Cardano should target the interim high from September 2022. The purple zone between USD 0.50 and USD 0.52 should be viewed as a medium-term upside target.
If the Bitcoin price also breaks out above the US$ 30,000 in the direction of US$ 32,500, Cardano should also continue to grow in the future. The high from August 2022 at USD 0.59 remains the maximum price target for the time being.
Cardano: Bearish price targets for the next few weeks
Bearish price targets: $0.37, 0.34/0.33 USD, 0.32 USD, 0.30 USD, 0.26 USD, 0.24 USD, $0.20, $0.17
However, if the bears succeed in retaliating again and Cardano dynamically slips back below USD 0.37 towards USD 0.34, the positive trend is again on the brink. A daily close below the orange zone should bring about a new directional decision. The area around USD 0.32 must be defended by the buy side. Otherwise there is a threat of a correction extension in the direction of the monthly low at 0.30 US dollars.
If there is no resistance from the buyer side and Cardano continues to lose ground, the ADA price could immediately drop to 0.26 USD. Here is the breakout level from January 5th of this year. If this support does not hold up either, the 12-month low will be retested at 0.24 USD. At this price level, a bullish countermovement is to be planned at the latest. The buyer side will do everything to form a double floor.
Worst case scenario would be a abandonment of this key support level. Then a sell-off into the gray zone between 0.20 USD and 0.17 USD could no longer be ruled out.
Looking at the indicators
In the last few days, both indicators RSI and MACD were able to form new buy signals. The RSI was also able to advance back into the neutral zone between 45 and 55 in the weekly chart. The MACD is still showing a weak buy-signal, however the momentum indicator is still trading below its 0-line. A new impulse develops here only with a reconquest.
