ETH/USD – The bulls manage a first stage win
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After a precise setback to the support at USD 1,150 mentioned in the last price analysis as a result of the interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in mid-December, the ether price leveled off in a narrow 4 percent trading range below the resistance at USD 1,232 . In a positive market environment and anticipation of the planned Shanghai upgrade in March, Ethereum was able to break through the recently insurmountable resistance and rise again exactly to the dollar up to the resist mark at USD 1,273. However, a lack of follow-up purchases by the bulls prevented the recapturing of this chart technical hurdle for the time being. A resurgent US dollar index DXY and the unequivocal statement by the US monetary authorities in the published FOMC statement in the evening, according to which a key rate cut, the so-called “pivot”, is not to be expected in 2023, caused renewed interest in the US stock market Selling pressure, which also gripped the crypto market. In view of the continuing difficult market environment, however, the Ether course is still doing well.
The buyer camp must now try to stabilize Ethereum above USD 1,232 in the short term in order to generate further upside potential in the short term. However, if the ether price slips back below yesterday’s breakout level, a false breakout is possible and the price should initially drop back towards the price level around the turn of the year at USD 1,190. The stalemate of the last few weeks could thus continue. However, as long as Ethereum does not dynamically fall below the December low of USD 1,150, there is still reason for hope for the buyer side.
Only when Ethereum undercuts this mark sustainably does the chart picture for the bulls cloud over. With a view to the indicators RSI and MACD, there is still hope on a daily basis. Although the RSI has been tilting slightly south since yesterday, as long as the 45 mark can be defended, the bulls will continue to have the momentum on their side. The MACD has also given its first buy signal since yesterday. In order to confirm this positive trend, however, it is imperative that the zero line is recaptured.
- Bullish price targets: $1,273/1,280, $1,305/1,352, $1,390, $1,425, $1,489, $1,532, $1,574, $1,654/1,678, $1,723, $1,776
Bullish price targets for the coming weeks
Despite a persistently weak stock market in the US, the ether course is showing relative strength. This is currently also evident in the cryptocurrencies of the staking providers Lido DAO (LDO) and Rocket Pool (RPL), which are increasing in value significantly in anticipation of the Shanghai upgrade. In the short term, Ethereum can also benefit from this trend. The fact that the ether price has been able to recapture the EMA50 (orange) for the first time since mid-December underlines the positive development since the beginning of the year. The chances for the buyer side to sustainably break through the cross-resistance of the supertrend and horizontal resist in the area of USD 1,280 are currently good if the price rises to this resist.
Then a march towards the blue resistance zone between USD 1,305 and USD 1,352 should be planned. However, renewed resistance from the bears is already to be expected in this resist range. If, on the other hand, the ether price continues to gain strength and overcome the interim high of December 14, 2022, a subsequent increase up to USD 1,390 is likely. With that, Ethereum would rise to a new monthly high. Even a march through up to USD 1,425 would then definitely have to be planned for. The gray resistance area between USD 1,425 and USD 1,489 can be seen as the first important target zone for the coming weeks. There are several strong price hurdles here with the golden pocket of the last movement and the tearing edge from the beginning of November. Renewed profit-taking by the bulls must therefore be planned for.
The bulls are targeting the November high
Should Ethereum then also pulverize the USD 1,489 mark, the EMA200 (blue) at USD 1,519 will come into focus. If the bulls can break through this important sliding resistance without any notable setbacks, the upward movement will initially extend to the horizontal resist at USD 1,574. This means that the high from November at USD 1,678 would again be in the focus of the buyers. The orange resistance area between USD 1,654 and USD 1,678 should therefore be seen as the next important target area for the coming months. The chance of a direct reconquest is to be regarded as improbable, at least at the first attempt. However, should the bulls succeed in breaking through this zone in the long term, the overriding target range between USD 1,723 and USD 1,776, which has already been discussed in previous price analyses, will come into focus as the maximum target for increases. Here, the buyer’s camp collapsed in September 2022.
- Bearish Targets: $1,232, $1,190, $1,150, $1,102, $1,074, $1,037, $992, $935, $882, $842, $720, $666/$634
Bearish price targets for the coming trading weeks
As long as the bears are able to prevent a breakout above the last interim high at USD 1,352, the probability of another pullback to at least USD 1,150 prevails. A first warning signal for the bulls can be seen in the renewed drop below USD 1,232. Ethereum should then drop again to at least USD 1,190. If the ether price slides back below this price mark at the end of the day, there will be a first test for the buyer side at USD 1,150. If the bears win the showdown and the support at USD 1,102 is dynamically undercut as a result, the likelihood of a retest of the recent lows at USD 1,075 increases significantly.
Whether this support level can be defended a third time may also depend on the development of the Bitcoin price and the strength of the US dollar. In addition, the development in the case of the lending provider Genesis and its parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) must also be taken into account. If there is new bad news, a sell-off down to the purple zone between USD 1,037 and USD 992 is conceivable at any time. If the buyer side does not succeed in initiating a reversal here, the correction will extend directly to at least USD 935. A direct sell-off down to the low for the year at USD 882 can then no longer be ruled out.
From the buyer’s point of view, the previous year’s low should not be fallen below
In view of the heterogeneous problem situation on the global financial markets, an extension of the correction to new selling lows must be planned for. The significant collapse in trading volume on all central crypto exchanges makes it difficult for the buyer to see a direct course reversal. If the ether price continues to come under pressure, Ethereum should drop towards USD 720 via the intermediate station at USD 842. If the bulls remain abstinent here as well, a relapse to the red support area between USD 666 and USD 634 would be expected. With the recapture of USD 1,232, the buyer side left a first scent mark, at least in the short term. Now it is important to further stabilize the ether course in the coming days in order to be able to target the previous month’s high.
