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An unexpected shift in US inflation data could provide Bitcoin with fresh momentum. According to Markus Thielen from 10x Research, there is a “real chance” that today’s US inflation numbers will come in lower than expected, potentially triggering a Bitcoin price surge.

US Inflation Data Determines the Market’s Direction

On February 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The market expects an annual inflation rate of 2.9%, but Thielen suggests a drop to 2.7% or 2.8% is entirely possible.

This could send Bitcoin back into rally mode, just like in January. At that time, inflation held steady at 2.9%, surprising many who had anticipated an increase. The result? A sudden $10,000 surge in Bitcoin’s price, pushing it back above the critical $100,000 level.

A key signal for this trend comes from the Truflation Index, a real-time tracker of US inflation. Recently, this index fell from 3.0% to 2.1%, indicating that price pressures are easing faster than many economists had predicted.

If official CPI data confirms this trend, it could trigger a wave of optimism in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary.

A New All-Time High Within Reach?

Another $10,000 price surge would push Bitcoin toward $105,500, bringing it just 3.5% below its all-time high of $109,000, which was briefly reached on January 20.

At the time, Bitcoin’s rally was abruptly halted by geopolitical uncertainty, particularly President Donald Trump’s new trade measures against Canada, Mexico, and China.

If inflation drops again, Bitcoin could get a second chance to test its record high.

Market Sentiment: Bullish Among Investors

A recent survey by Into The CryptoVerse founder Benjamin Cowen suggests that investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Out of more than 12,000 participants, 51.7% expect Bitcoin to rise in the days following the CPI release.

Additionally, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, sees the potential for new all-time highs in the coming weeks. He points to the strong performance of gold, which has recently set multiple new records.

Falling US Inflation Could Give Bitcoin a Major Boost — Source: Michaël van de Poppe

Since Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as digital gold, a similar rally in the cryptocurrency market could be on the horizon.

Bitcoin Price Analysis & Trading Tips

Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering around $96,000, showing a downward trend over the past few days. The moving averages (SMA 7, 30, 50, 100, 200) indicate a bearish sentiment as the price remains below key resistance levels. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the 50 mark, signaling neutral momentum with no clear overbought or oversold conditions.

Key Observations:

Bearish Momentum: The price has been struggling to stay above the short-term moving averages, suggesting ongoing selling pressure.
Support Levels: The closest support zone appears around $95,500, with a more significant lower support at $92,000.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at $97,000 – $98,000, where the price has faced rejection in recent attempts.
RSI Recovery: The RSI previously dipped into oversold territory below 30, indicating a short-term bounce. However, the recovery remains weak, meaning more downside risk is possible.

Trading Tips:

Short-Term Bearish Setup: Traders looking for shorting opportunities could consider entering below $95,500, targeting the $92,000 – $93,000 range with a stop-loss above $97,000.
Rebound Play: If Bitcoin bounces off support at $95,500, a long position with a target of $98,000 – $99,000 could be considered, provided the price stays above key moving averages.
Breakout Confirmation: A strong move above $98,000 could indicate a potential shift towards a bullish trend, with a possible retest of $100,000 in the short term.
RSI Consideration: If RSI drops below 30 again, it could signal an oversold buying opportunity, but confirmation is needed from price action and volume.

Overall Sentiment: Bearish-to-neutral in the short term, with potential recovery if key supports hold. A break below $95,500 could lead to further downside, while $98,000 remains a key breakout level for bulls.

Author
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Roman B.

I have 6 years of writing experience on several leading websites dealing with cryptocurrencies and other investments. I have been in the Web3 sector for a similar amount of time and have collaborated on several projects from NFT to P2E. My previous experiences: Business2Community.com, TradingPlatforms.com, CryptoSvet.