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Bitcoin price is mirroring its movements from March 2024, which, according to Biraajmaan Tamuly from Cointelegraph, suggests that a drop to $90,000 is possible. It’s true that the digital currency had a rocky start to 2025. While everyone is hoping for the continuation of the bull market, it has yet to materialize.
Where Are the Price Increases?
It’s not unusual for Bitcoin to go through a rough phase, especially given the current macroeconomic uncertainty.
In the U.S., inflation remains a concern, while economic growth has been stronger than expected. As a result, the Federal Reserve (Fed) feels no urgency to implement rapid interest rate cuts.
The Fed’s stance on limited rate cuts in 2025 has been repeatedly confirmed by several Fed officials in recent weeks, including Phillip Jefferson.
Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson (part of Powell's inner circle) makes even more clear that cuts aren't a part of the near-term base-case.
Lower rates are the most likely outcome "over the medium term."
"That said, I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance." https://t.co/NbCF72bm4L
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) February 5, 2025
At the same time, Donald Trump is stirring up uncertainty and market turbulence. This is never ideal for financial markets, as they prefer stability and predictability to guide investment decisions.
More Than 10% Below the All-Time High
Currently, Bitcoin is trading over 10% below its all-time high of $109,000. However, this correction is relatively mild compared to previous bull markets.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has become significantly more stable over the years:
- In the 2016–2017 cycle, the average correction was 38%.
- During the 2020–2021 bull market, it was 23.25%.
- In the current 2024–2025 phase, the maximum drop so far has been 26%, with an average decline of 12%.
- So far in 2025, the average correction stands at 8.9%—but the year is still young.
How Low Could Bitcoin Go?
Based on the following chart, analysts predict that in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could drop to $81,500.
This would represent a 26% decline, while a correction to $90,000 would mean a 14% drop.
“There is a possibility that Bitcoin could retest the $90,000 level in the coming weeks, as the market structure is turning bearish in the short term.”
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading around $98,718, showing signs of gradual recovery after a period of volatility. The price has formed a short-term uptrend following a previous dip, with resistance near $98,800 – $99,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 66, indicating that BTC is approaching overbought conditions, which may lead to a temporary pullback. However, the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator suggests steady buying pressure, supporting the continuation of the upward trend.
If Bitcoin maintains its momentum above $98,500, it could attempt to test higher resistance levels. However, if selling pressure increases, a retracement toward $97,500 – $97,800 is possible before further movement.
