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Likely Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are already tied on Polymarket’s betting markets for the US presidential election. At least, that’s what the site displayed on Friday (08/09), after another week of hectic campaigning for both candidates.
There is still a long road ahead until the November vote. However, Polymarket’s updated odds suggest a more even race after incumbent President Joe Biden dropped out of the race for reelection.
Bet on Polymarket shows tied candidates
In the betting market titled “2024 Presidential Election Winner,” Trump and Kamala are currently tied. After all, they are each receiving 49% of the vote.
On the other hand, the remaining 2% goes to various US political figures. However, all of them have minimal chances of winning this year’s election. In fact, in some cases, they are not even running.
Among the names mentioned is former first lady and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Also listed are Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Another name that appears is that of former First Lady Michelle Obama. She had been considered a dream candidate for Democrats, due to her great popularity. However, she has ruled out running for the Democratic presidential nomination more than once.
According to the Wall Street Journal, at times, Trump has already fallen behind Kamala by a small margin. For example, he lost by one percentage point to the Democrat on Thursday (8). In fact, this was the first time he appeared behind Kamala since the beginning of the polls that mention the name of the current US vice president.
But it’s not just Polymarket’s betting trends that have the former TV star worried.
Kamala has also been leading in several recent national polls, which is also happening for the first time since Biden announced his withdrawal from the race last month.
The two candidates for the Oval Office of the White House will face each other in a debate televised by ABC News on September 10. Therefore, it will be the first time that the two debate since Biden’s fateful performance against Trump last June.
Trump vs. Kamala feud intensifies crypto lobby
This year, 20% of voters in key states indicated that cryptocurrencies are an important issue in their choice of candidate. So it’s clear that digital assets are already playing a crucial role in this year’s electoral race.
Trump has been widely seen as the most crypto-friendly candidate. For example, last month he told the audience at the Bitcoin Conference 2024 that he intends to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet.” The event took place in Nashville.
However, recent efforts by a Democratic crypto collective (which logically supports Kamala) could help break Trump’s tight grip on the blockchain sector.
Crypto is building a movement to support Kamala Harris. A group of industry leaders, political experts, and everyday crypto-enthusiasts are organizing to back Harris while pushing for a nuanced policy stance that positions America as a leader in digital assets.
The new “Crypto For Harris” campaign is set to hold its first meeting next Wednesday (August 14). The event will feature the participation of billionaire Mark Cuban, former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, and several US lawmakers. Therefore, the goal is to discuss whether members of the digital asset community could support Kamala before November.
“The crypto community is building a movement to support Kamala Harris,” the digital asset group said in a post on X on Aug. 6.
“A group of industry leaders, policy experts and crypto enthusiasts are rallying to support Kamala (…) While also pushing for a more sophisticated policy stance that positions the U.S. as a leader in digital assets.”
It remains to be seen whether cryptocurrencies will have the power to decide one of the most contested campaigns in recent years in the United States.
Can Kamala seek the crypto vote?
Kamala Harris has yet to make any firm statements on the subject of crypto assets. However, she may eventually need to adopt a more solid position on the matter.
After all, as the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) states in a report released earlier this month:
The statement is included in the institution’s report on the US presidential election. According to the independent think tank, Kamala “must set her own agenda for cryptoassets or risk ceding the ground entirely to Republicans.”
Despite reports that the current vice president may be “more open” to cryptocurrencies than Joe Biden, she has remained relatively quiet on digital assets.
Additionally, Kamala declined to attend the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, which is the leading conference on digital assets. On the other hand, Trump not only attended the event but also used his speech to proclaim that he would make the US “the crypto capital of the planet.”
Senators want to block sites like Polymarket
The success of crypto betting platforms like Polymarket has caught the attention of some US senators, especially regarding predictions about the presidential election.
In fact, five senators and three representatives from the United States House of Representatives have been calling for a ban on betting activities in this year’s presidential election.
The bipartisan group is made up of senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal and Elizabeth Warren. Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others, are also members.
Senators recently sent a letter to Rostin Behnam, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In it, they denounce the dangerous influence that, according to them, betting markets could have on the electoral landscape:
“Political betting alters the motivations behind every vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”
Despite this, it is difficult to predict effective developments for this senators’ request. In fact, so far, there has been no positive response from Behnam.
