Table of Contents
After weeks of snoozefest vibes and low-ass liquidity, the market finally sparked up some real action. The trigger? The U.S. started teasing tariff relief on Chinese imports, and boom — both stocks and crypto lit up like it’s 4/20.
And Bitcoin, being the absolute king it is, ripped past a major level: The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis at $92.9K.
This fancy metric shows what recent buyers paid for their coins and tends to be a major mood swing line — either party time or full-blown panic.
Historically, when Bitcoin stays above this line, the bears get wrecked and bulls start acting cocky. Problem is, just like the fakeouts we saw from July–September 2024, this latest pump only managed a little tease above the STH Cost Basis.
We’ve got a flicker of hope — but not full confirmation that Bitcoin’s back to setting your portfolio on fire (in a good way).
Bitcoin Rips, But Is It More Than Just a High?
Bitcoin hit $94.3K, and with it, we saw unrealized profits pop off. The Percent Supply in Profit jumped to 87.3%, up from the pit of despair back in March.
For some perspective:
Last time Bitcoin was chillin’ around $94K, only 82.7% of supply was in profit.
Translation: About 5% of Bitcoin’s supply changed hands at worse prices since March. Brutal.
Usually, when we get above 90% profit supply and stay there, it’s game on for a classic euphoria phase —
aka everyone thinks they’re a genius until the rug gets pulled.
STH Supply Profit/Loss Ratio Hits Neutral — The Make-or-Break Zone
Another spicy sign: The Short-Term Holder (STH) Profit/Loss Ratio just bounced back to 1.0 — the neutral line.
What the hell does that mean?
It means short-term coins are split evenly between being underwater and being in the green.
It’s a tightrope walk — and every bear market before this has seen STH-P/L stuck below 1.0 acting as a ceiling.
Every time Bitcoin’s dragged this ratio back to 1.0 from underneath, we either pop off hard… or roll over like a drunk at 2AM. If Bitcoin can hold above 1.0, it’s another clue the bulls might finally have some real ammo. Watch this line like a hawk (or like a degen refreshing CoinGecko every 5 minutes).
Profit-Taking Madness: Are the Big Boys Cashing Out?
Now that we know we’re sitting at a decision point, we gotta spy on what the whales are doing. Right now, Realized Profit is blowing up to $139.9M/hour, about 17% higher than the usual $120M/hour.
Translation: A whole lotta people are saying, “Yeah, lemme lock in this bag before it’s gone.”
If Bitcoin eats this selling pressure like a champ? That’s super bullish.
If it crumbles under the weight of degen exit liquidity? Dead cat bounce 2.0 incoming.
Who’s Cashing Out? Hint: It Ain’t the OGs
Looking deeper, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) shows it’s the short-term holders taking profits — not the OGs who bought at $10K and now live on private islands. STH-SOPR just popped above 1.0 for the first time since February, meaning recent buyers are selling for profit instead of crying into their ramen.
Usually, when STH-SOPR floats above 1.0 for a while, it’s a damn good sign. New money is making gains = fresh fuel for moon missions.
Perp Traders: Betting Against the Rally Like Degens
Meanwhile, in the leverage casino: Perpetual swap open interest just climbed to 281K BTC, up 15.6% from March lows.
And the kicker? Funding rates have tanked to -0.023%. Meaning? Everyone’s betting short. (Yeah, because that always ends well, right?)
When open interest flies up and funding rates flips negative, we get a juicy setup for a short squeeze from hell — aka bears getting bent over when the price keeps grinding up.
But fair warning: The longer-term vibe looks hella cautious. The 7-day moving average of long-side funding has dropped to $88K/hour and keeps sliding.
So yeah, perps are hedging hard — and if the market sneezes, expect fireworks.
Institutions Sneaking Back In
Guess who’s back? Institutions are starting to sniff around Bitcoin again. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw $1.54B in net inflows in one freakin’ day. One of the highest single-day inflows ever.
That’s a fat green flag saying big money’s thinking:
“Maybe this Bitcoin thing ain’t dead after all.”
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Why ETH Is Still Sleeping
Some folks are whining, “Why hasn’t ETH pumped too?” Well, when you line up the ETF flows, the difference is nasty:
-
Bitcoin ETFs had two monster inflow waves, each over 10% of BTC’s spot volume.
-
Ethereum ETFs? Barely a blip. Less than 1% of ETH’s spot volume.
Translation: Institutions want Bitcoin, not $7 gas fee krypto. That’s why Bitcoin’s flexing and ETH’s just standing there awkwardly holding a beer.
Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism or Another Tease?
Bitcoin ripping past $94K shows a mix of macro hope, new profits, and shorts getting cocky. Metrics like the STH Cost Basis reclaim, the Percent Supply in Profit rising to 87.3%, and institutional ETF flows all paint a picture of potential real recovery brewing.
BUT…
It’s all about that STH Cost Basis line.
Hold above it? The bulls might actually get a shot to turn this into a full send.
Lose it? Get ready for another savage rugpull and some very salty Twitter threads.
