One of the most respected cryptotraders PlanB , the author of the popular Stock-to-Flow model (S2F), thinks that even if Bitcoin falls below its 200-day moving average (200MA), it remains above $ 8200 to find its local bottom. He derives this from his new calculation, which he did not specify. He added only that it would be valid until Bitcoin fell below that, which he did not expect.
PlanB expressed his thoughts in a series of “tweets” in which he said that Bitcoin will be trading above $ 10,000 by May, when the expected halving will take place.
*** Update: my 2 sats on #bitcoin price:— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 10, 2020
– 2020: btc stays above $8200 (so we are NOT dropping to $6k or $4k levels that others are predicting now)
– May 2020 halving: will be above $10k
– 2021: bull run starts after the halving and tops $100k before Dec 2021#NotFinancialAdvice https://t.co/Zkkma4ZBSd
The stock-to-flow model still applies
The Stock-to-flow model (S2F) measures the cost of BTC using two factors: the stock, the amount of Bitcoins in circulation and the flow, which is the number of Bitcoins that enter the circulation.
Low bitcoin emissions compared to its existing supply (only 6.25BTC in 10 minutes from May after halving) means Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce. Therefore, it is often compared with gold.
With regard to halving, PlanB expects to be a strong fundamentals that will lead Bitcoin to $ 100,000 by December 2021.
Bitcoin’s price is currently 14% higher than the S2F model predicts on the current date. Of course, the chart cannot accurately predict the price of bitcoin, but in the long run the price is still around its curve and this is why it´s gaining popularity.