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Like the vast majority of cryptocurrencies, Monero (XMR) is trading in a downtrend overall. However, the cryptocurrency, which specializes in anonymous payments, has held up relatively well in contrast to many other altcoins. The payment currency, which has been improved to the Bulletproof+ algorithm since the hard fork of August 13, 2022, is currently trading around 47 percent below its annual high from April of the previous year.
Despite new plans by the European Union to possibly ban privacy coins, the XMR price has recently risen more significantly northwards from its low in early November 2022 and is currently trading at USD 155, a good 30 percent above its low of the last two months. On Thursday, January 5, the bulls also managed to lift Monero’s price above the important EMA200 (blue) for the first time since May 2022. However, this breakout still needs to be confirmed to generate further price potential towards the purple resistance zone. A false breakout could quickly see the XMR price crumble back down to $145 and below. Due to the recent report of possible payment difficulties on the Huobi crypto exchange and ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Digital Currency Group (DCG), a renewed false breakout on the upside must be taken into account at any time.
- Bullish price targets: $161/167, $174, $190/196, $210, $216/222, $232, $279/290, $326
Monero: Bullish price targets for the coming months
In order for the Monero price to continue its positive trend of the last few weeks of trading, the price must optimally stabilize above the cross support from EMA200 and the red downtrend line. At most, a short spike towards USD 145 would not be a problem for the bulls. Because here there are two more supports with the EMA50 (orange) and the Supertrend.
If the bulls succeed in taking the USD 152 out sustainably, the purple zone between the 78 and the 88 Fibonacci retracement of the current price movement will come back into the eyes of investors. There are also two interim highs from September and November of the previous year between USD 161 and USD 167. Should Monero also recapture this area, there will be a first directional decision in the area of the high from August 2022 at USD 174. The first investors are likely to want to make a profit here.
Are the bulls targeting the top of the trend channel?
A breakout of the first target area would give XMR price some breathing room into the $190-$196 yellow resistance zone. If the bulls stay on the trigger here as well, Monero could even target the medium-term target area around USD 210. With the cross resistance from the 161 Fibonacci extension and the summer high from June of the previous year, there is a strong resist area here. A price bounce is therefore very likely. However, the bulls should do everything they can to recapture this area, at least in the short term, in order to work off the overriding golden pocket between USD 216 and USD 222 and to subject the upper edge of the downtrend channel to a consistency test.
However, in order to leave this upwards, the stock market and with it the entire crypto sector must also find its way back on track. If, contrary to expectations, the bulls succeed in breaking out of the upper edge of the trend channel and the USD 232 mark is also pulverized, there would be room for a rally into the red resistance area between USD 279 and USD 290. The XMR course was unable to overcome this zone in the winter months of 2021 and most recently in April 2022. From the current perspective, this area represents the maximum bullish price target on the upside. Only at the start of a new bull market would an increase to USD 326 and beyond be considered.
Bearish price targets: $153/151, $145, $140/138, $134, $125/122, $117, $112, $104, $96, $74, $60
Bearish price targets for the coming months
The bears probably won’t give up anytime soon. As long as Monero is trading below USD 174, a counterattack can be expected at any time. Another drop below USD 153 and especially below the cross support at USD 145 would promptly lead the XMR course back into the orange support zone. If there is no resistance from the buyer camp between USD 138 and USD 140, and the lower edge of this support area at USD 134 is also abandoned at the daily closing price, the correction extends immediately into the blue zone around USD 124.
Then the low from November moves back into the focus of investors. The interim low at USD 116 must not be fallen below in order to protect the bulls’ chances. If there is no further price reversal and Monero continues to slide, a fall back to the lows of the previous year between USD 112 and USD 104 should be planned.
Further course fees are to be planned
At least on the first try, the cops will be there. An interim recovery back towards USD 116 is to be expected. However, if the buyer side fails here again and the XMR rate slips back to around USD 104, the chance of a bearish trend continuation to the previous year’s low of USD 96 increases noticeably.
If the rest of the financial market also tends south, and Monero dynamically falls back below the year low, the bottom of the trend channel comes into focus as a target area. Then the XMR course should initially target the horizontal support at USD 74. If the top of the gray support zone does not hold, a follow-up movement up to USD 60 would be increasingly conceivable. This also increases the probability of a relapse to the bottom of the trend channel. This falling line also represents the maximum bearish price target for the first half of 2023.