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Let’s not sugarcoat it—Bitcoin just bulldozed its way to $104,000, and guess what? It wasn’t thanks to some degens on Binance 100x long-shorting each other to oblivion. No, this time it was spot and ETF markets carrying the damn torch, while the derivatives crowd stumbled behind like a confused drunk uncle at a wedding.
Spot Buyers Said “Send It”
Since that brutal dip to $75k on April 9, Bitcoin has been in full-on “climb-the-ladder” mode. Each leg up has been accompanied by a solid accumulation phase—yeah, that boring sideways chop we all hate—before blasting higher.
You can see this pattern clear as day in the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap. It’s like geological layers of conviction. Each time price consolidates and climbs, it forms new supply clusters—proof that hodlers are saying, “Yep, still worth it.”
One standout zone? $93k to $95k—a fortress of conviction, mostly made up of Short-Term Holders (STHs) who jumped in within the last 155 days. This range is more than just numbers—it’s a psychological bedrock, and it’s gonna take more than a tweet from Jerome Powell to crack it.
Spot CVD: Where the Real Action’s At
Let’s get a little nerdy with some on-chain data. Ever heard of Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)? It’s the metric that tells you whether the market’s buyers have balls—or if they’re just bots getting baited.
Since mid-April, Coinbase has been on a taker-buying rampage, with CVDs peaking at +$45M per day. That’s not your average Joe aping in. That’s real spot demand from real players.
Meanwhile, Binance was out here dumping like it’s tax season, with net sells of -$71M/day back in March. That has since cooled to a manageable -$9M/day. In other words, sell pressure is finally chilling the f*ck out.
The takeaway? When both on-chain accumulation and spot CVD are telling the same story—bulls are in control, and they ain’t shy about it.
Institutional Money Ain’t Playing Anymore
Let’s talk big boys. ETFs are no longer just a boomer buzzword. Since their launch, they’ve turned into a goddamn liquidity pipeline. On April 25, inflows peaked at a juicy $389M/day—that’s not retail, that’s Wall Street going, “Screw the Fed, let’s ride Bitcoin.”
Sure, flows have slowed to about $58M/day, but that’s still enough juice to keep the wheels turning. And hey, if it matches the bullish madness we saw earlier in 2024, we’re not complaining.
STH Profit Metric Says “Still Room to Run”
Here’s where things get spicy. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio has gone full rocketship. It dipped to a pathetic 0.03 during the April 7 correction (translation: almost all STHs were underwater and crying), but now it’s shot past 9.0. That means 90%+ of them are in profit.
High STH profits usually mean one thing: incoming profit-taking. But relax—this ratio can stay high for weeks before the wheels fall off. It’s only when it starts nosediving below 1.0 that we should scream and panic.
Profit-Taking? Yeah, It’s Started – But It Ain’t Peaked
Yep, STH Realized Profit has spiked. We’re talking +3 standard deviations above the 90-day average. But don’t panic-sell your bags yet. In past runs toward all-time highs, we’ve seen this sucker hit +5 SD or more before things cracked.
TL;DR: We’ve got room to breathe. Profit-taking has begun, but we ain’t anywhere near mass panic mode… yet.
Derivatives Playing Catch-Up Like Always
Oh derivatives. They’re like the guy who shows up to the afterparty just as the DJ packs up. While spot markets were popping bottles, derivatives traders got wrecked.
How do we know? Open Interest (OI) in perpetual futures dropped by over 10%, from 370k BTC to 336k BTC. That’s a classic short squeeze, baby.
And let’s be honest: flushes like this are good. They reset over-leveraged positions, burn greedy traders, and pave the way for healthier uptrends. Think of it like a good puke after too much tequila—necessary, disgusting, and cleansing.
Funding Rates: Shockingly… Normal?
You’d expect funding rates to go parabolic with price surging like this, right? Wrong. They’re chilling around 0.007% daily (7.6% annualized), which is basically neutral territory.
That tells us one thing: derivatives markets are still asleep at the wheel. There’s no excessive long-side leverage, which ironically, is a bullish sign. It means this rally ain’t fueled by hopium—yet.
Options Say: “Screw Hedging, Let’s Gamble”
Now, let’s look at the options market. Specifically, the 1-Month 25 Delta Skew. This beauty tells you whether traders are leaning bullish or bearish.
Right now? It’s sitting at -6.1%, which means calls are way pricier than puts. In trader terms, that means, “We’re betting this thing goes up.”
Sustained negative skew = bullish hunger. If it holds, it confirms that options traders are onboard the moon mission and not hoarding puts like scared toddlers.
TL;DR – This Rally Is Real, But Derivs Are Late to the Party
Bitcoin’s rally to $104k isn’t a fluke. It’s backed by:
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Strong on-chain data showing accumulation,
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Spot market demand from both retail and institutions,
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And ETFs still gobbling up supply like it’s all-you-can-eat sushi.
Meanwhile, derivatives markets are playing catch-up. And that’s actually good—no overheated leverage, no crazy funding, no panic… yet.
The only thing hotter than Bitcoin’s chart right now? The salty tears of overleveraged shorts who thought $80k was the top.
Want to ride this wave smartly? Keep one eye on the funding rates, the other on real spot flows, and remember—the chain never lies.
