According to Donald Trump, a victory by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election on November 5 in New York would trigger a stock market crash reminiscent of the onset of the Great Depression in late October 1929. However, this ultra-pessimistic forecast is likely to be interpreted primarily as a campaign strategy from the assertive Republican. Some experts, including those from DZ Bank, emphasize that the future development of the stock market will not be significantly influenced by whether Harris or Trump wins the presidential race.
Crypto regulation: Harris more moderate than Biden?
Predicting how the crypto market would react to a Harris victory feels like gazing into a crystal ball. The reason? While Donald Trump takes a clear and vocal pro-crypto stance in the ongoing U.S. presidential race, his Democratic challenger, Kamala Harris, has remained notably reserved in her statements about the crypto sector. This caution creates uncertainty within the cryptocurrency industry, particularly after President Joe Biden, under whose administration the crypto industry experienced strict regulations, decided not to seek reelection. Some crypto enthusiasts fear that Harris may continue her predecessor’s critical approach.
However, there are behind-the-scenes signs that Harris could take a more moderate stance on cryptocurrencies than Biden did. Brian Nelson, a senior advisor to her campaign, recently stated that Harris would support measures aimed at fostering the growth of digital assets. At a Bloomberg event held alongside the Democratic National Convention, Nelson predicted a crypto-friendly stance from Harris. “She will support policies that ensure emerging technologies and industries like this can continue to grow,” Nelson reflecting a possible willingness to improve the regulatory framework for the crypto industry. Yet, despite these optimistic signals, it remains unclear how serious Harris is about promoting the crypto industry.
Harris critics warn of a political strategy
Despite sending signals that suggest potential support for the crypto industry, many in the sector remain skeptical. Some speculate that Harris’s approach to crypto might be more of a political strategy than genuine interest. These concerns were amplified by reports that her participation in crypto-specific events had been less than convincing.
A notable example is her attendance at a town hall meeting focused on blockchain technologies. According to reports, not limited to Republican sources, Harris left a mixed impression. While some praised her efforts, others were disappointed by the superficial understanding she demonstrated regarding the technology.
Mark Cuban, a well-known billionaire and crypto enthusiast, expressed doubts about Harris’s genuine commitment after the event. He noted that while Harris “may have good intentions,” her knowledge of the technical aspects of the crypto industry was “very limited,” according to Finance Magnates. This critique reflects the general skepticism shared by many in the industry: Harris’s interest in crypto may be driven more by political calculation than by a deep understanding of the technology.
Empty promises?
Despite these doubts, Harris continues to push her crypto policy agenda. According to Reuters, she has already gained the support of several Democratic lawmakers who believe cryptocurrencies will play a central role in the future of the U.S. economy. The presidential candidate has focused her campaign team on creating a regulatory framework that promotes innovation while protecting consumers. “We must foster innovative technologies while also creating a stable business environment with consistent and transparent rules,” she promised recently.
However, this is where the catch lies: Many in the crypto industry distrust these promises. Skepticism surrounds not only Harris’s lack of technical knowledge but also the timing of her newfound enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. With the 2024 elections looming, some observers see her turn towards crypto as a calculated attempt to appeal to a growing and lucrative voter base, rather than a true commitment to understanding and supporting the technology. Indeed, some industry insiders believe her focus on crypto has more to do with positioning herself as a tech-savvy leader than with promoting genuine innovation.
Another factor fueling doubts about Harris’s commitment is the vague and non-specific way her campaign addresses cryptocurrencies. Despite the encouraging words from her advisor, Nelson, the statements remain unclear. Promises to “reduce unnecessary bureaucracy” and “promote innovative technologies” are seen by many as typical campaign promises that may not translate into concrete action.
Between hope and fear
Currently, the crypto community remains divided over the prospect of a Harris victory. On one hand, there is hope that Harris could create a more stable and innovation-friendly environment for digital assets. On the other hand, there are concerns that her efforts might ultimately be politically motivated and lead to half-hearted, potentially harmful regulations. In a rapidly evolving market heavily dependent on trust and innovation, such uncertainty could have significant consequences.
Whether Kamala Harris is truly prepared to understand and support the complex and dynamic world of cryptocurrencies will only become clear after the election. Until then, her crypto strategy remains a topic of intense debate and speculation.
