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A classic technical indicator suggests that Bitcoin price could peak in the summer of 2025, while further declines are possible in the short-term perspective. Analysts point to historical patterns that indicate that Bitcoin, despite the recent price drop, may be in the final stages of a correction.
Consolidation after the record high
Bitcoin hit a record high of $108,268 in December 2024 , but has since fallen 14% and is now trading at around $97,000 . According to analyst Dave the Wave, the price is in a four-week consolidation phase after the impressive gains of 2024. However, this consolidation is not unusual and could be a springboard to a new high, possibly in July 2025.
Dave the Wave bases his prediction on the 52-week moving average (SMA) and the logarithmic growth channel (LGC). Historically, Bitcoin peaks when the SMA crosses the center of the LGC channel. He notes that the market is in a maturing phase, with Bitcoin’s moves becoming less steep.
Historical peaks and a “less steep” market
Data shows that in previous cycles, Bitcoin peaked just before or after the moment the SMA crossed the center of the LGC channel. In 2013 and 2017, that moment fell roughly in December, while the 2021 peak was in November. If the patterns of previous cycles repeat, the 2025 peak could be sometime in July, with possible deviations of a few days or months.
Correction in the final phase?
Meanwhile, analyst Rekt Capital calls the current consolidation a “first correction after price exploration.” Such corrections, which are typical of the early stages of a bull market, usually last two to four weeks. He expects the correction, which has now been going on for four weeks, to be in its final phase.
Axel Adler Jr. also points out that the current correction is less severe than previous corrections. For example, Bitcoin fell by more than 26% in July 2024, while the recent decline was limited to 14%. This relatively mild correction is considered by analysts to be typical for years after a halving period.
The first Bitcoin Price Discovery Correction is in progress
They generally tend to last 2-4 weeks
This current retrace has been going on for 4 weeks now
Length-wise, history therefore suggests this correction should be in its final stages.
Possible head-and-shoulders formation
However, there are risks too. Veteran trader Peter Brandt points to a possible head and shoulders (H&S) formation on the Bitcoin chart, which could lead to a drop to $77,000 if the pattern is confirmed. Alternatively, this pattern could also turn out to be a so-called “bear trap,” where the price completes the pattern but fails to reach the expected target.
Other analysts, such as Bitcoin Munger, point to significant buy orders between $85,000 and $92,000 on Binance. This could indicate that the price could temporarily drop to fill these orders before a move towards the sell orders around $110,000 follows.
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