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This chart is based on the Pi Cycle Top model, which has historically proven to be one of the most accurate indicators for identifying the peak of Bitcoin bull cycles. The chart displays Bitcoin’s historical price action, along with the SMA 111d (blue line) and SMA 350d x2 (purple line). These indicators play a crucial role in identifying the moments when the market enters the euphoric phase, typical of a bull cycle peak.

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Analysis – Projection for 2025 — Source: BitBo

The Pi Cycle Top model has been extremely accurate in predicting Bitcoin’s previous tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021. The current projection suggests that the next cycle peak could occur in December 2025, with a projected price of approximately $258,344.84.

Historical Context and the Importance of Moving Averages

Bitcoin tends to follow cyclical behavior, where periods of accumulation are followed by a strong bull trend, which eventually ends with a parabolic peak. This cycle has historically repeated approximately every four years, often coinciding with Bitcoin halving events.

SMA 111d (blue line) – This indicator tracks shorter-term trends and often serves as the main dynamic support during a bull market.
SMA 350d x2 (purple line) – This longer-term moving average is considered the cycle top indicator. Historically, whenever Bitcoin’s price has crossed above this line, it has signaled that the market is entering a euphoric phase and approaching a peak.

Since this model accurately identified Bitcoin tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, many analysts consider it a valuable tool for predicting future market tops.

Bitcoin’s Projected Growth and Cycle Top

The chart illustrates a projected future trend, indicating that Bitcoin remains in a bullish cycle.
The model suggests that Bitcoin could reach a new peak of $258,344.84 in December 2025.
Important: While this model has been historically accurate, it is not a guarantee that Bitcoin will reach this price level, but it does indicate a strong probability based on past trends.

Possible Bitcoin Scenarios

✅ Bullish Scenario (Historical Pattern Repeats)

If Bitcoin continues to follow this model, it could sustain its bullish trend and eventually reach $250,000+ by 2025.
Key Support Level: If the SMA 111d (blue line) remains above the price, the market is likely to remain bullish.
Bitcoin could experience an accelerated price increase, leading to a cycle peak around December 2025.

❌ Bearish Scenario (Cycle Slows Down or Fails to Materialize)

If Bitcoin fails to break through key resistance levels and the trend slows, the growth could be less aggressive than projected.
Correction Zones: If Bitcoin falls below the SMA 111d, it could signal a deeper correction, similar to what happened in 2022-2023.
A potential outcome could be a prolonged consolidation period or even a failure to reach the projected peak.

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Analysis: Key Takeaways and Recommendations

🔹 Historically, the Pi Cycle Top model has been highly accurate in identifying Bitcoin cycle peaks.
🔹 According to the projection, Bitcoin could peak at $258,344.84 in December 2025.
🔹 The key factor to watch is whether BTC can sustain its trend above the SMA 111d – this will determine whether the bull cycle remains intact.
🔹 Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels to optimize their entry and exit strategies.

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Roman B.

I have 6 years of writing experience on several leading websites dealing with cryptocurrencies and other investments. I have been in the Web3 sector for a similar amount of time and have collaborated on several projects from NFT to P2E. My previous experiences: Business2Community.com, TradingPlatforms.com, CryptoSvet.