Looking at the market capitalization of Binance Coin, it could be concluded that the token is the dominant asset compared to other stock exchange tokens. The controversial combustion mechanism expired from April 2019, when the stock exchange changed its whitepaper to the BNB.
The original document proposed a plan in which BNB tokens corresponding to 20% of the exchange profit would be purchased according to a “repurchase plan”, but the new version canceled this plan.
However, the exclusion of 60 million BNBs that have never been in circulation drastically changes the result, as these excess tokens are to be burned over time.
The remaining exchange tokens are inflationary, which means that the issue rate is very steep. For example, Uniswap (UNI) has 611 million tokens in circulation, but that number is expected to reach 1.14 billion in 10 years.
How the BNB differs from other exchange tokens
The BNB also has a real use case in addition to discounts on trading fees. It is the primary pair in the Binance Smart chain. The BNB captures part of the total value of $ 17 billion locked in BSC’s smart contracts and has a decent market share and representation at DEX. The result is that the network creates a constant demand for BNB.
Should analysts discount the BNB’s value by 50% based on these simple numbers compared to other exchange tokens? As already mentioned, BNB prices appear to be based on volume Binance.
Uniswap reaches the average daily volume $ 1.63 billion, although it offers exclusively spot markets. This figure is comparable to Binance’s average of $ 24.3 billion excluding derivatives markets. Using Uniswap’s 93.3% lower volume, the rough estimate gains a market capitalization of $ 10.3 billion. All this based on 50% of the BNB’s reported $ 76.7 billion. The forecast is therefore based on 36% below actual UNI figures. So uniswap should be overrated.
Company PancakeSwap, Binance Smart Chain’s leading DEX, processes daily volume $ 750 million. Using the same 50% BNB market capitalization methodology, CAKE’s estimated valuation should be $ 4.73 billion. That’s surprising in accordance with the current number and CAKE is properly valued.
It gained the transition to the centralized exchange FTX daily volume $ 1.7 billion including derivatives markets. As a result, the indicator can be compared to the Binance average of $ 54 billion. Despite its lower volume of 96.8%, FTX’s gross estimated valuation is $ 4.83 billion – 11% below the actual number. FTX is therefore undervalued.
Finally Sushiswap mediates the daily volume of transactions $ 305 million. If we only take into account Binance’s spot data of $ 24.3 billion, the same estimate is worth $ 1.92 billion. That’s roughly 33% above the actual value.
The aim of this methodology is simply to show that traders effectively use the volume of the exchange as a proxy for the valuation of native tokens.
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