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Bitcoin has not had a strong start to the new year. Expectations were sky-high, particularly due to the promises made by Donald Trump for the start of his second presidential term. However, there is still no Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and Bitcoin is currently trading at $96,000.

Even analysts at CryptoQuant are becoming increasingly skeptical about Bitcoin’s price development.

Bearish Signals for Bitcoin

According to CryptoQuant, more and more investors are withdrawing their Bitcoin from derivative platforms.

For some analysts, this is a warning sign—especially for those hoping for further price increases. This trend reduces the likelihood of short-term price surges.

Dutch CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has identified a decline in volume between derivative and spot exchanges using the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator.

“When a significant amount of Bitcoin is transferred to derivative exchanges, it signals a bullish phase. It indicates that traders are moving coins to open long positions in the derivatives market,” Maartunn explains.

However, his latest chart shows that this is not currently the case.

Confidence in the Bull Market Remains

Despite Bitcoin experiencing a weaker phase, confidence in the continuation of the bull market remains strong among analysts. Even the most cautious experts still expect price increases as soon as global liquidity receives a positive boost.

However, this largely depends on the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve—and at the moment, the Fed is in no rush to lower interest rates.

Inflation in the U.S. remains relatively high, while the economy and labor market remain strong. In other words, there is currently no urgent need for interest rate cuts—not even a moderate one.

While market sentiment remains optimistic, and many are hoping for a continuation of the bull market, the macro environment does not yet provide immediate support for this assumption.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis & Trading Tips

The 1-hour BTC/USD chart on Bitstamp shows a clear downtrend, with BTC struggling to maintain higher levels and facing resistance in key zones. The price is currently at $95,419, testing a critical support level.

Key Observations:

Resistance Zones: The $96,400 – $97,000 range has acted as a strong rejection area, where BTC failed to gain momentum.
Support Zones: BTC is currently testing support around $95,200, with stronger support at $94,800 (highlighted in green). A breakdown below this level could trigger further downside movement.
Volume Analysis: Increasing selling pressure suggests that bears are in control, as seen by the larger red volume bars during price drops.
RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.48, indicating oversold conditions and a possible short-term bounce. However, the overall bearish trend remains dominant.

Trading Tips & Strategies

Bullish Scenario (Short-Term Rebound Trade):

If BTC holds the $94,800 – $95,200 support, we could see a short-term bounce toward $96,000 – $96,400.
Look for RSI confirmation, as a rise above 40-45 RSI would indicate momentum shifting in favor of buyers.
Entry: Consider a long position near $94,800 – $95,200 with a stop-loss below $94,500 to manage risk.

Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):

If BTC loses $94,800 support, the next downside target would be $93,500 – $94,000.
Volume analysis shows that sellers are in control, so shorting BTC below $94,800 with a stop above $95,500 could be a high-probability trade.

Key Resistance to Watch:

$96,400 – $97,000 → Strong rejection zone. A breakout above this range could indicate bullish strength.
$98,500 – $99,200 → Higher resistance where BTC previously faced rejection.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is currently at a make-or-break level, with the $94,800 support being crucial for the next move. A bounce from this area could lead to a short-term recovery, while a break below it would open the door for further declines. Traders should watch volume, RSI, and price action closely before making their next move.

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Margharet Tess

Editor, Developer at Cryptheory Labs

I have been active in the cryptocurrency world for over 6 years, during which I have written countless articles about this sector. What fascinates me most about cryptocurrencies is their technological aspect and the problems they aim to solve. In the past three years, I have ventured into app development and am currently working on a larger project called P2E Buzzer. Stay tuned for the surprise. 🙂 My previous experiences: Business2Community.com, TradingPlatforms.com

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