Polygon (MATIC) analysis: What happens after the sale-off?
4 min readPolygon (MATIC) price has come under significant pressure following recent SEC allegations against several altcoin projects. The Securities and Exchange Commission rates Polygon as an unsecured security, similar to Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL). As a result, MATIC corrected from the top to 0.51 US dollars and thus reached a new low for the year. Although Polygon temporarily rose back into the turquoise resistance zone in a technical countermove on Thursday, June 22, it weakened again in the $0.70 area and fell back towards $0.66. Only a sustained stabilization above the 0.75 US dollar would brighten the chart image again. A renewed sell-off below US$ 0.60, on the other hand, should increase the correction pressure again and focus on the green support area around the new low for the year. Irrespective of the current share price capers, Polygon has been ranked among the top 100 most influential companies in 2023 by Time Magazine along with Chainalysis and Circle.
Polygon: The bullish price targets
Bullish price targets: 0.69USD/0.75 USD, 0.82 USD, 0.95USD/0.97 USD, 1.02 USD, 1.15 USD/1.19 USD, 1.25 USD, 1.33 USD
Polygon has been one of the clear underperformers among the top 20 cryptocurrencies in recent weeks. To break the bearish corrective trend, MATIC price must first sustain a sustained rally above yesterday’s daily high towards cross-resistance at $0.75. Here you can find not only an important horizontal price level but also the super trend in the daily chart. In an initial reaction, the price should bounce back south here.
Even if the bulls succeed in dynamically overcoming this area, the next massive chart technical hurdle awaits at the latest at 0.82 US dollars. In addition to the trailing edge, derived from the previous month’s low, and the EMA50 (orange) at 0.79 US dollars, the golden pocket of the last downward movement can also be found here. A first sign of life from the bulls would be a daily closing price above this relevant technical chart mark. There is then room for a follow-up rise towards the orange zone around $0.96. Polygon last failed in this make-or-break zone at the end of May. The EMA200 (blue) can also be found here.
A recapture seems unlikely on the first try. Only if the bulls manage a dynamic jump back above this level, a recovery move back towards $1.02 is conceivable. If the purple resist zone can also be broken upwards in the long term, the recovery movement should continue to gain momentum. Then MATIC could march back towards the April high between USD 1.15 and USD 1.19 in the medium term.
Only if the buyer side can develop enough strength to dynamically pulverize the yellow resistance zone as well, a subsequent rise with an intermediate stop at the March high of 1.25 US dollars up to the blue zone of 1.33 US dollars can no longer be ruled out. In view of the difficult chart situation and the uncertainty surrounding the SEC lawsuit, the blue resist area represents the maximum bearish price target for the time being.
MATIC course: The bearish price targets
Bearish price targets: 0.59 USD, 0.53 USD/0.50 USD, 0.45 USD/0.41 USD, 0.34 USD/0.32 USD
The bears have done a great job and sent the MATIC course clearly south. In the meantime, the course corrected by 50 percent to the south within 30 trading days. The medium-term price target mentioned in the last price analysis on May 10th was thus completed faster than expected. Polygon can currently recover, but the bears still have the scepter in their hands for the time being. As long as the price remains capped below 0.82 US dollars, another sell-off towards the low for the year can be planned at any time. A first signal would be a daily close below the horizontal support line at $0.59.
Should the crypto market and especially the altcoin sector lose feathers again as Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, Polygon is likely to give way back towards the green support zone around the year low between $0.53 and $0.50. The buyer side must be present here.
A break below this area would take MATIC price to the old June 2022 breakout level of $0.45. A price drop of up to US$ 0.41 would also be conceivable. Should the sell-off continue after a brief bounce, a bearish trend continuation to the previous year’s low of June 18 at 0.31 US dollars could no longer be ruled out.
Looking at the indicators
The RSI indicator has worked its way back to the bottom of the neutral zone from the lowest level of 17 since Polygon started trading on Binance. This eliminates the massively oversold status for the time being. However, only when the RSI breaks out of the neutral zone back above the 55 to the north does it generate a fresh buy-signal. The MACD has formed a slight long signal as a result of the price recovery over the past two weeks, but is still trading below the 0 line.
In the weekly chart, too, the RSI is again tentatively pointing north, but with a value of 37 it is still in sports territory. The MACD indicator is also showing a short signal and still has room for another wave of corrections in the coming weeks.
