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Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA) prices have a bit surged in recent days despite market stagnation. The surge is driven by growing speculation that an XRP ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) will be approved, while the likelihood of Cardano getting its own spot ETF by 2025 is also growing steadily.
81% Chance for XRP ETF Approval
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of an approval this year is now estimated at 81%.
SEC Acknowledges Grayscale’s XRP and DOGE ETF Applications
On February 13, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially acknowledged the applications submitted by Grayscale for both an XRP ETF and a Dogecoin ETF. Although this does not yet mean approval, it is a crucial first step in the process. According to the regulation, the SEC has 240 days to make a final decision.
ETF analyst James Seyffart from Bloomberg, however, emphasizes that an XRP ETF only has a chance for approval once the ongoing lawsuit by the SEC against Ripple Labs is fully resolved.
Following the SEC’s acknowledgment, the probability of an XRP ETF in 2025 quickly rose on Polymarket to 81%, a significant increase compared to the 70% in January. However, the market is divided regarding approval before July 31, 2025: only 45% of investors expect a positive decision before the third quarter of 2025.
XRP ETF Not Yet Guaranteed
Despite the increasing likelihood of approval, Jeremy Hogan, a partner at Hogan & Hogan and a prominent XRP supporter, warns that there is still a long road ahead before an XRP ETF actually comes to market.
“Yes, the approval could occur quickly, but then the S-1 filing must also be approved, and so on. You should rather expect a timeframe of 8-12 months.”
Although the final approval may still be pending, the SEC’s acknowledgment represents an important step forward. In the short term, this acts as a strong impulse for the XRP price.
Cardano Spot ETF Approval Odds Rise Steadily for 2025
According to Bloomberg, there is currently a 60% probability that an ADA ETF will actually hit the market.
The first important date to watch is March 27. On that day, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must respond to the initial applications for a Cardano ETF.
Cardano Price Lags Despite ETF Speculation
Despite the growing speculation about an ADA ETF, the Cardano price has shown little movement so far. The price of ADA has fallen by 1.3% in the last 24 hours and is currently $0.78.
The altcoin has been in a downward trend since December of last year. At that time, the price reached a local high of around $1.30, but since then, its value has dropped by 40%. As a result, many investors remain bearish regarding the future of Cardano.
Grayscale Files for a Cardano ETF
The application for a Cardano ETF on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was submitted by Grayscale, a major U.S. asset management company specializing in digital assets.
According to experts, an ADA ETF could attract billions of dollars in capital, similar to the Ethereum (ETH) ETFs. Last summer, Ethereum saw the launch of nine funds that currently manage a total of $10.33 billion.
Conclusion
To wrap up, we’ve seen that XRP has surged due to speculation around ETF approvals, while Cardano’s price has remained more stagnant. However, the potential for future ETF approvals could spark significant price movements for both. As the market continues to evolve, both assets might experience dramatic price action in line with these regulatory changes. It’s clear that the future of both XRP and Cardano depends heavily on the unfolding landscape of cryptocurrency ETFs.
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