Former President Donald Trump, who dubbed himself the “Crypto President,” actively supported the sector, while Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained a relatively cautious stance since she entered the race.
According to Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Nathan Frankovitz, the firm’s digital asset investment analyst, both Harris and Trump could be good for Bitcoin, but the broader digital asset market could see different outcomes under their leadership.
A Harris presidency could be more favorable for higher prices
VanEck has proposed a scenario where Harris could retain Gary Gensler, the SEC chairman known for his strict regulation of cryptocurrencies, during her presidency. This scenario, coupled with Harris’s potential alignment with the more regulation-focused financial policy faction within the Democratic Party represented by Senator Elizabeth Warren, could create a more challenging environment for institutional adoption of digital assets.
This regulatory environment could stifle innovation and growth in the industry, posing challenges to the development of the broader crypto market.
However, for Bitcoin enthusiasts, there may be a positive side to this situation
VanEck pointed out that Kamala Harris’ presidency may be more favorable to Bitcoin than the Trump administration. The company believes that under Harris’s administration, structural problems such as increased fiscal spending and tightened regulation may prompt more investors to view Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation.
This could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal and its competitiveness relative to other digital assets.
On the other hand, VanEck’s analysis points out that the crypto industry as a whole may benefit more from a second Trump term. Trump’s presidency may bring more deregulation and business-friendly policies, which is particularly beneficial to cryptocurrency entrepreneurs.
The firm believes that under such a government, the crypto ecosystem will face less regulatory scrutiny, providing a more favorable environment for growth and innovation.
Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will surge if Trump wins
However, not everyone holds the same view
A report from Bernstein predicts that if Trump wins the election, the price of Bitcoin could surge to between $80,000 and $90,000. Conversely, if Harris wins, they expect Bitcoin could fall and test the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
Despite differing views on the candidates, broader macroeconomic trends appear to be favorable for Bitcoin regardless of who wins.
VanEck noted that the U.S. is likely to continue on a path of increasing fiscal deficits and rising national debt, which will lead to a weaker dollar. Such conditions have historically been favorable for Bitcoin, which many investors view as a store of value and a hedge against economic instability.
Meanwhile, Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, said Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs by the end of the year regardless of who wins the US election.
Kendrick believes that Bitcoin could hit new highs by the end of 2024 as “positive factors dominate regardless of the election outcome.”
I think no matter who wins the US election, Bitcoin will hit a new high at the end of the year. If Trump wins, Bitcoin may rise to $125,000; if it is Kamala Harris, it may rise to $75,000.”
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