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Bitcoin (BTC) has been riding a strong upward trend since the end of 2024, but not everyone is convinced it will last. Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, is even warning about a potential plunge to $10,000. He argues that several key indicators suggest the market is overheating and entering a speculative bubble.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: An Inverse Relationship?
McGlone highlights the historical inverse correlation between Bitcoin and gold. While gold has surged by 15% in 2025, Bitcoin has fallen by a similar percentage. This pattern suggests that investors prefer traditional safe-haven assets like gold during uncertain times, rather than speculative assets like Bitcoin.
A prime example is March 14, 2025, when gold surpassed $3,000 per ounce for the first time. Economic uncertainty—fueled in part by President Donald Trump’s trade policies—has driven investors toward gold, reinforcing its role as a hedge against risk.
The Bigger Picture: S&P 500 and Crypto Correlation
McGlone also points to the S&P 500’s performance as a potential predictor for Bitcoin’s future moves. Historically, crypto markets have often moved in tandem with stocks, meaning any downturn in equities could signal trouble for Bitcoin as well.
Historical Parallels & Political Risks
The Bloomberg analyst compares the current Bitcoin rally to past speculative bubbles, such as the Dotcom boom of the early 2000s. He highlights signs of excessive speculation, including:
- Massive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs
- A surge in retail investor participation
Adding another layer of risk, McGlone warns that political support for crypto—especially from Donald Trump—could fuel further volatility. While increased political backing might boost adoption, stricter regulations could pose a major threat to the market.
Could Bitcoin Really Drop to $10,000?
Although McGlone foresees a sharp correction, technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, rather than on the brink of a collapse. A drop to $10,000 seems highly unlikely—but as history has shown, financial bubbles can burst when least expected.
What the Data Says: Crypto vs. Gold ETFs
A recent Bloomberg Intelligence chart suggests an intriguing trend:
- Gold ETF holdings have remained weak, despite gold prices rising.
- Crypto has rebounded significantly, mirroring past speculative surges.
The question remains: Are we witnessing a peak in crypto enthusiasm, or is gold simply being ignored by traditional investors?
Whether McGlone’s $10,000 BTC prediction proves accurate is yet to be seen. For now, the market remains highly speculative, but a complete collapse still seems far-fetched—at least for now.
