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The Dutch analyst PlanB took the Bitcoin world by storm in 2019 with his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, designed to predict Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Although his popularity has waned somewhat, millions still follow his insights, taking his predictions seriously. According to PlanB, Bitcoin is now at a critical crossroads—one that will determine whether the bull market rally continues or takes a bearish turn.
Are We Still in a Bull Market?
Based on on-chain investor behavior, PlanB believes that Bitcoin is still in a bull market. However, he’s concerned about the lack of new all-time highs since January, which could signal the beginning of a bearish phase.
Some questions about the bitcoin market cycle chart. It is still measuring 'bull market' (red) in onchain data. But as I explain in today's video, we are at a crossroads:https://t.co/hSuxxulyqd pic.twitter.com/2MScCcY03o
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 3, 2025
PlanB still sees a chance for a V-shaped recovery, especially after Bitcoin corrected to $78,000 last week.
“In bull markets, we often see multiple corrections of 20% to even 30%. Still, this one was unexpected.
After the all-time high in January, I expected further highs in February. In that sense, we are truly at a turning point,” says PlanB.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
PlanB sees two possible outcomes: Either we witness a red-hot bull market with continued price surges, or Bitcoin enters a distribution phase, which could mark the start of a bear market.
“So, what will it be? I don’t know. That’s the big question. Was that already the peak, and is the bear market starting now? Or are we about to see a V-shaped recovery and more bullish price action?” PlanB wonders.
Looking at Bitcoin’s historical price movements, PlanB expects new all-time highs. However, much will depend on external factors like Donald Trump’s trade war and the health of the global economy.
Can Bitcoin Reach New Record Highs?
A key factor in Bitcoin’s future price is the M2 money supply—in simple terms, the amount of US dollars flowing through the global financial system. Research from Real Vision suggests that Bitcoin’s price lags M2 growth by roughly 10 weeks.
At the end of 2024, the M2 money supply contracted sharply, followed by Bitcoin price declines. Now, M2 is rising again (black line), and Real Vision believes it’s only a matter of time before Bitcoin follows suit.
In one chart:
Global M2 Money Supply predicts BTC Price and S&P 500 move up, approximately March 25.
This is not a guarantee. It's an observation. Let's watch together and see what happens.
Watch my recent video for more on this correlation: https://t.co/TTbUTrcNFW https://t.co/SR4OVqMvjz pic.twitter.com/xMy06Z10ik
— Colin Talks Crypto 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) March 4, 2025
Even Colin Talks Crypto sees a positive scenario for Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market (S&P 500) based on the growing M2 money supply. However, he cautions:
“This is not a guarantee. It’s an observation. Let’s watch together and see what happens.”
The Global Money Supply and Bitcoin’s Price
Real Vision isn’t alone in noting Bitcoin’s strong correlation with money supply trends. Macro analyst Lyn Alden has previously highlighted M2’s predictive power when it comes to Bitcoin prices.
“Bitcoin moves in the same direction as global liquidity 83% of the time over a twelve-month period—a stronger correlation than any other major asset class, making Bitcoin a powerful barometer for liquidity conditions,” Alden wrote in September.
Final Thoughts
If the money supply continues to rise, we could be in for a stronger Bitcoin rally. However, other external risks remain.
Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war is fueling uncertainty, and his Bitcoin reserve remains shrouded in mystery. Whether Bitcoin breaks into new all-time highs or faces a market downturn may depend as much on global politics as it does on market cycles.
