If you regularly invest small amounts in BTC instead of cigarettes, you can amass a fair amount of Satoshis. But is it enough to be a millionaire?
First of all, no, this article is not intended to be a moral sermon to smokers. Don’t worry, smokers. Cigarette consumption is just a good hook for something that some people consume on a regular basis and is therefore excellent for the bills mentioned in this article. In this way, non-smokers can also feel addressed.
Structure and assumptions of the calculation model
For the sake of simplicity, we make the following assumptions for the invoices listed in the article:
- A smoker smokes 10 cigarettes a day, which corresponds to half a box. A total of 3 ½ boxes are smoked in a week. At a price of US $ 7 per box, that would be US $ 24.5 per week, rounded up to US $ 25 for the sake of simplicity. Which in turn corresponds to 100 US dollars a month.
- We decided to display the invoices in US dollars because this is currently still the norm with BTC. But the euro and the US dollar are often interchangeable in this case.
The principle: At the beginning of each month, 100 US dollars are invested in BTC.
For the year 2010, for example, $ 100 will be invested in BTC on January 1st, another $ 100 on February 1st, $ 100 on March 1st, and so on, until December 1st. For the sake of clarity, only the BTC purchases and stocks for an entire year are shown.
The question remains when the bills start. For this we have set four starting years – 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019.
Beginning of 2010: multimillionaire
- The $ 100 invested monthly would have grown to $ 451 million today.
In 2010, BTC was just in its infancy. Suppose a smoker found out about BTC this year. Instead of spending 100 US dollars per month on smoking, he makes the courageous resolution to put this sum in BTC at the beginning of each month.
In 2010 alone, a total of 8,157 BTC were acquired. On December 1, at a BTC rate of $ 0.23, these were just $ 1,876 value.
Assume the system is kept. On the first of the month, US $ 100 is invested in digital gold and then simply left behind. In 11 years, up to September 1, 2021, a total of 9,235 BTC would have been acquired. On September 1st, these were worth over $ 451 million. By comparison, you would have only got $ 14,100 off saving.
If you take the “stock-to-flow model” in hand, which predicts a BTC rate of US $ 1,000,000 for the year 2025, then the “no smoking” and continuous investing would have resulted in a total of 9,235 Billions of dollars.
BTC start year 2013: millionaire
- If you had stopped smoking in 2013 and put the US $ 100 a month in BTC, it would have become US $ 1.599 million on September 1, 2021.
2013 was a wild year for BTC. For most of the year, the BTC price was below $ 200. At the end of November, BTC suddenly took a big leap and marched towards the US $ 1,000 mark for the first time. In 2013 alone, 22.29 BTC would have been accumulated. At the time, these were worth $ 21,111 at a BTC rate of $ 945.
Eight BTC years later, in September 2021, the $ 100 invested each month would have accumulated 32.7 BTC. These were worth $ 1.599 million on September 1, 2021. In comparison: By depositing the bank account, it would have become $ 10,800.
BTC start year 2016: Wealthy
- If you had stopped smoking in 2016 and put the 100 US dollars a month in BTC, it would have become 167,925 US dollars on September 1, 2021.
Suppose you had set yourself the resolution on New Year’s Eve 2015 to quit smoking and to put the saved monthly sum of 100 US dollars in BTC. Then with this 100 US dollars a total of 3.4382 BTC would have been accumulated by September 1st. Which was the equivalent of $ 167,925 on September 1. In comparison, if you just deposited the $ 100 into your bank account, you would have only accumulated $ 7,200.
Assuming a BTC rate of $ 1 million for 2025, as predicted by the S2F model, the BTC acquired could be worth $ 3.438 million.
BTC start year 2019: good cushion
- If you had stopped smoking in 2019 and put the 100 US dollars a month in BTC, it would have turned into 16,883 US dollars on September 1, 2021 – a nice cushion.
Admittedly, in 2010 and 2013 most people had never heard of BTC, Blockchain and Co. The later years in particular are more realistic when it comes to getting started.
So what would have happened if you had only started making these regular payments two years ago? The monthly 100 US dollars would have become 0.3457 BTC by September 1st, 2021 – which corresponds to 16,883 US dollars. A respectable sum for 2 years. Just saving it would have turned it into US $ 3,600.
BTC start year 2021:?
Suppose you decide on September 29th to invest 100 US dollars a month in BTC and set up a BTC savings plan for this purpose, for example.
Then you would save $ 3,600 in three years (12 months * 3 * $ 100). If you put this 3,600 US dollar completely into BTC on September 29, 2021, you get 0.085 BTC.
Of course, no data are available for the future. That is why the stock-to-flow model is used again for the prognosis of the BTC rate.
That 0.085 BTC could be worth $ 85,000 in four years, 2025. At a price of one million US dollars, which is predicted by the S2F model.
Small conclusion on the cigarette-BTC exchange
And further? You don’t always have to make big investments to get rich. Investing regularly is worthwhile and is often less emotionally charged, which in turn increases the chance of investment mistakes. Also only BTC was considered in this calculation experiment. It would be exciting to see how the above experiment with altcoins would have turned out – for example, investing 100 US dollars a month in ETH or in a mix of the 10 largest coins.
Smoking was only used as an example for this article – almost everyone spends 100 US dollars a month on something they could actually do without. If you invest these sums instead, for example in BTC, it can turn out to be a lucrative and healthy decision a few years later.