Important events for crypto and BTC this week

US consumer confidence figures

Lagarde will appear in front of the cameras again tomorrow, Tuesday, at 10:00 a.m. (CET) and is likely to explain and justify further aspects of the monetary policy measures taken by the ECB. In the afternoon at 4:00 p.m. (CET) further figures on consumer confidence, i.e. consumer optimism about economic development in the USA, will be published by the Conference Board (CB). Analysts are forecasting a reading of 100.4 for the month of June.

In the previous month, consumer confidence was 106.4. A falling value signals that the economy is increasingly threatening to get out of step. If the analysts’ expectations are clearly missed, this will also have a negative effect on the strength of the US dollar, which could also affect the price of BTC and Co. Since its peak in June 2021, CB consumer confidence has slipped from 128 to 106 in May.

Important data midweek

On the following Wednesday, 29 June, at 11:00 a.m. (CET), Eurostat will publish consumer inflation expectations for the month of June. The market participants’ forecast is 45.6 and thus at the same level as the previous month. Inflation expectations had recently fallen somewhat, in March they were still 59.6. If the value is above analysts’ expectations, the pressure on the European Central Bank to increase interest rates faster and more strongly than communicated at the last ECB meeting will increase.

US GDP figures

At 2:30 p.m. (CET) the data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the USA for the second quarter of 2022 will follow . The GDP can be used to draw conclusions about the current economic strength of a country. The expert forecast is -1.5 percentage points, which suggests a shrinking economy. If the analysts’ estimates are significantly lower, the American Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to reconsider and, if necessary, adjust its current interest rate policy.

Just 30 minutes later, at 3:00 p.m. (CET), the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, once again commented on the current economic and financial situation in the USA. Powell will address the gross domestic product figures and provide an outlook on possible adjustments to monetary policy measures. This is likely to result in increased volatility on the financial market.

Unemployment figures and crude oil inventories for the USA

As every Thursday at 2:30 p.m. (CET), the number of initial jobless claims in the USA will be announced. 228,000 new initial applications are expected this week. Compared to the previous week, this estimate is around 1,000 lower. However, if the number of initial claims turns out to be higher than expected, the likelihood of fiscal easing by the Fed increases.

EU Consumer Prices and ISM Purchasing Managers Indices

On the last day of the trading week, July 1st, at 11:00 a.m. (CET), Eurostat publishes the consumer price index (CPI) for the European Union year-on-year for the month of June. Market participants are forecasting a year-on-year increase of 8.4 percentage points. In the previous month, the increase was still 8.1 percent. If the expert estimates are exceeded, the pressure on the ECB will increase further and make higher interest rate hikes necessary.

The figures are rounded off by the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing sector. At 4:00 p.m. (CET), the Institute for Supply Management publishes the latest key figures on manufacturing activity in the manufacturing sector. Expectations for the month of June stand at 54.9 after reading 56.1 for the previous month. A value below the 50 threshold indicates a contraction in economic activity and, if it falls below it several times, increases the probability of a recession in the USA. Falling PMI numbers are usually negative for the US dollar and could be supportive for BTC price.