A better-than-expected labor market report (NFP) last Friday ensured a conciliatory end to the week in the last trading week. The positive price development on the US stock indices was transferred to the crypto market, which also tended to be friendly in an initial reaction on Friday. In the meantime, the BTC price rose to the top of its sideways phase at USD 21,892 before renewed profit-taking over the weekend.
The positive development of the previous week does not continue at the start of the week on the stock market. Whether the price increases in the previous week only represented a technical recovery movement and the financial markets will correct again this week or whether we have seen a bottom for the time being, will largely depend on fresh key figures from the economy. You can read below which dates could influence the prices of BTC and Co. in this trading week.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) mid-week
On Wednesday, July 13, at 2:30 p.m. (CET), the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of June will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in the USA. Market participants are forecasting a year-on-year increase of 8.8 percentage points. In the previous month, the increase was still 8.6 percent. If the expert estimates are exceeded, the pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase further. Fed Chair Jerome Powell would have to consider further rate hikes to curb runaway inflation.
New producer prices and fresh unemployment figures for the USA
The producer price index (PPI) for the USA will be published on Thursday at 2:30 p.m. (CET). Forecasts predict an increase of 0.8 percentage points. In the previous month, the increase in producer prices had already averaged 0.8 percentage points. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the products and services produced and sold in the US in terms of the change in transaction prices. A rising PPI also points to higher inflation, which should further add to the US dollar’s strength against the euro.
Also at 2:30 p.m. (CET) the weekly figures for initial jobless claims in the United States will be announced. 235,000 new initial applications are expected this week. Compared to the previous week, the analyst estimate increases by 5,000 applications. Should the number of initial applications turn out to be higher than expected, this would indicate an increasing economic downturn in the USA. A sustained negative development could lead to fiscal relief by the Fed.
US retail sales at the end of the week
On the last day of the trading week, Friday July 15, at 2:30 p.m. (CET), the Census Bureau will present retail sales for the month of June. These are regarded as an important indicator of the buying mood of consumers. Most recently, sales in the US retail trade were -0.3 percent, well below the expectations of market participants. Despite a decline in the previous month of May, the majority of market players expect end consumer sales to increase by 0.8 percentage points. A reading below this forecast would indicate ongoing consumer fears.
At 4:00 p.m. (CET), several relevant key figures from the University of Michigan will then be presented. Investors are paying particular attention to the consumer expectations of private households in the USA. These are considered a measure of the purchasing behavior of American consumers. The analysts forecast a value of 47.0 for the month of July. That forecast remains at a 10-year low. Consumer expectations were last rated so low in 2011. In the previous month, consumer expectations were at 47.5. If the forecast of 47 is even undercut, this should increase the pressure on the Fed again. Continued weak consumer behavior on the part of US citizens could prompt the US Federal Reserve to provide further relief for private households.