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Fundamental analyst On-Chain College recently reported on his Twitter account about a significant development in the crypto world: According to his observations, the US government has transferred more than 31,000 BTC. Overall, the cumulative sum of the total number of Bitcoins they hold has reduced to just under 176,000. Do officials in the USA already realize that the BTC price will go downhill again? We look at the details about the Bitcoin forecast!
The US government’s BTC balance sheet and its recent transactions
The Glassnode graph in the tweet shows that the US government has moved a large amount of Bitcoins. Before the transfer, the BTC holdings were 207,611 BTC, which subsequently fell to 175,811 BTC. This move is clearly reflected in the chart and marks a significant point in the US government’s BTC balance sheet. Those developments can be attributed accordingly through publicly viewable data sets and the assignment of the corresponding wallets to the US government institutions.
The US Government now holds just under 176K BTC after moving over 31K BTC to Coinbase today.
Tick Tock, Next Block. This BTC train isn't stopping. pic.twitter.com/n1Fmj9vWW4
— On-Chain College (@OnChainCollege) April 3, 2024
The transfer of such a large volume of BTC is likely to have various implications for Bitcoin. Both in terms of the general market dynamics of other coins, as well as the government of America’s strategies when dealing with cryptocurrencies as a whole. On-Chain College’s comment:
“Tick Tock, Next Block. “This BTC train isn’t stopping” suggests to us that even with the changes in the balance sheet, the US government is still adopting Bitcoin at full speed and that the metaphorical train will not stop in the next few years.
Impact on BTC forecast: Bitcoin sentiment remains bullish
A transfer of this magnitude to a major exchange like Coinbase is being interpreted in a variety of ways by analysts. While more critical voices see such actions as preparation for a possible sale, other market observers see such transfers of coins via the corresponding wallets as part of a broader financial strategy as a whole.
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple and its indications for future prices
In the context of Bitcoin’s continued high popularity, let’s take a look at other metrics surrounding the BTC coin. @OnChainCollege offers another perspective on Bitcoin valuation. Using the so-called Mayer Multiple, this tool helps to appropriately assess the value of Bitcoin in relation to its historical price development. A corresponding classification and a well-founded outlook for the further Bitcoin price forecast is therefore made possible for us on a factual basis.
The Mayer Multiple is an indicator that compares the current Bitcoin price to its 200-day moving average. A higher multiple basically indicates that the market is overheating. While a lower multiple in BTC may indicate undervaluation and corresponding buying opportunity.
I work in probabilities.
When we look at the period of the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple that we're at now compared to comparable levels in the past (same MM level, with MM not in a steep decline), the conclusion is clear.
Higher probability of higher prices for Bitcoin this year. pic.twitter.com/YAh76KraDE
— On-Chain College (@OnChainCollege) April 4, 2024
What is the Mayer Multiple? Current status of Bitcoin
According to @OnChainCollege, the current position of the Mayer multiple indicates a higher probability of additional price increases for Bitcoin over the remainder of the year. He supports his hypothesis based on the observation that the current level of the multiple, without showing a steep decline, is historically correlated with rising prices.
In the past, periods in which the Mayer Multiple reached similar values and remained stable were often a harbinger of a positive remaining Bitcoin price development. The current stability of the multiple shows us that we will find ourselves in such a phase again in the current market situation for BTC.
While Bitcoin will of course continue to be a big player in the crypto sector due to its establishment, smaller projects offer the potential for very high returns, especially in the bull market. Especially if these coins are combined with a really solid fundamental component and a corresponding use case in the real world, these cryptocurrencies can turn out to be real giants in the entire crypto market for years to come.
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