BTC price doesn’t have to rise

In a recent interview, analyst Willy Woo outlined a completely different hypothesis about BTC price than usual.

BTC price cycles

According to Woo, the current fourth cycle of BTC may have a different result than the previous one.

BTC cycles are determined by halvings. The first halving took place in November 2012, which resulted in the end of the first cycle. The next two cycles, which ended in July 2016 and May 2020, had similar characteristics.

In both cases, a year after the halving, there was a significant bull run, which in the last three months of 2013 and 2017 ended in a full-blown speculative bubble.

Many expect the 2021 bull run to follow this pattern, especially in a similar way to 2013, which saw an initial bull phase in the first months of the year, a subsequent correction with lateralization and a speculative bubble that began in October.

As a result, the price of BTC reached ATH between November and December, with the subsequent collapse, which subsequently left the price above pre-bubble levels.

According to Woo, the fourth cycle, which began in May 2020, could have a different result.

In his new analysis, Woo states that too many people expect a scenario like the one described above, to the extent that this may not be the case. The new hypothesis is that the price of BTC may not enter a phase characterized by real speculative “mania” at the end of the year, but go up slowly with less volatility, although still with fluctuations and falls.

Woo describes this hypothetical price movement as a “drunken walk,” which is like a drunken walk that swings but continues.

Woo now advises that we should not focus on the hypothetical peak of the $ 200,000 current cycle and not try to determine what the highest price in 2021 might be.

While acknowledging that many investors have bought BTC to try to sell it at a higher price, he rather suggests that those who own BTC do not sell and hold the asset at any cost this year.