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Bitcoin (BTC) price has held up well this week despite a rising US Dollar Index DXY. One reason may have been the phenomenal price increase of the chip manufacturer Nvidia. After strong quarterly figures, the US company increased in value by more than 25 percent and ensured a friendly end to the week on the US financial markets. The Nasdaq100 technology index rose to a new 52-week high. The ongoing uncertainty about a timely agreement on raising the debt ceiling in the USA accelerated the upward movement on the crypto market in the last 24 hours of trading and ensured a remarkable recovery in the crypto reserve currency to 28,400 US dollars in the meantime. The bulls thus appear to have stopped the bearish consolidation trend of the past few weeks for the time being. In a weekly comparison, the Bitcoin price is around six percent firmer and was able to break through the trading range of the last 14 days.

However, whether the price increase shortly before the Senate and the House of Representatives approved the details of the debt ceiling adjustment negotiated between Democrats and Republicans in a timely manner is only an initial reaction or whether the prices of Bitcoin and Co. can benefit from it in the long term will become clear due to the Memorial Day holiday in show the USA tomorrow Tuesday at the earliest. For Bitcoin, it is still the case that only a confirmed breakout above 27,800 US dollars will resolve the sideways movement of the previous weeks in a bullish way and activate new price targets on the upside.

The following economic data will be relevant this week

The last week of trading in May begins with the release of new US consumer confidence data. The JOLTS jobs report for the USA will be published in the middle of the week. In the second half of the week, the first preliminary estimates of the development of EU consumer prices in the current trading month will be presented. In addition, the crypto space is looking forward to the start of the retail trading sector in Hong Kong. From June 1st, small Chinese investors in the metropolitan city will initially be able to trade around 20 cryptocurrencies on state-licensed crypto exchanges. The trading week ends with fresh data on the US job market. At the same time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics presents the monthly labor market report (NFP) and the unemployment rate.

US consumer confidence at the start of the week

Tuesday, May 30, 2023: On Tuesday at 4:00 p.m. (CET) the Conference Board (CB) will publish the latest figures on US consumer confidence for the current month of May. At 101.3 in the previous month, private households’ assessment of economic development in the USA was again below the expert forecast of 104.0. The better than expected figures in March were therefore not confirmed for the time being. For the month of May, analysts are forecasting a further decline below the 100 line to 99.0. If the estimates are met or even undercut and consumer confidence continues to decline, as in the first few months of this year, this would further increase the likelihood of a possible US recession in the coming months of trading. Weak consumer data has recently had a negative impact on price developments on the financial market. Continued weak consumer confidence would again make a correction extension in the crypto market more likely. If, on the other hand, the forecast is exceeded and optimism among US consumers increases, contrary to expectations, the Bitcoin price should benefit, as it did in the previous month.

JOLT’s job report midweek

Wednesday, May 31, 2023: At 4:00 p.m. (CET) the latest JOLTS job report for the month of April will be presented. The current estimate of the experts puts the number of vacancies at 9.77 million. Most recently, the number of vacancies fell to 9.59 million, below expectations of 9.77 million. For the first time since October 2022, defensive estimates have been missed twice in a row. Should the number of vacancies again be below expectations in April, this would be a further signal that the economic slowdown has also increasingly reached the US labor market. Continued weak numbers would further increase the likelihood of a recession in the second half of the year. A weak JOLTS report could put a damper on the recently strong US stock indices and also put further pressure on prices on the crypto market. If, on the other hand, US companies create more new jobs than forecast, the chance of a bullish continuation of the trend increases. A positive JOLTs report in 2023 has so far acted as a tailwind.

Current inflation data for the euro zone

Thursday, June 01, 2023: At 11:00 a.m. (CET), the euro area state will announce the preliminary release for consumer prices in the euro area. Most recently, the inflation rate was unchanged at 7.0 percent. In their first forecast, the experts also anticipate a year-on-year inflation rate of 7.0 percentage points for the past May. However, in view of US consumer prices continuing to fall, a decline cannot be ruled out. However, an unexpected increase in consumer prices in the UK speaks against this. If the inflation rate in the previous month is below analysts’ expectations, the European stock market should benefit and could also further stabilize the crypto market. If, on the other hand, the figures published in advance were to be above the analysts’ forecast and thus increase again as in the previous month, this would be a further setback in the fight against the ongoing inflation problem in the euro zone. A renewed increase in inflation rates in the countries of Europe would be poison for the economy in the euro zone. In the previous week, Germany had already slipped into a recession after weak GDP figures. On the European financial markets, despite fresh all-time highs in several stock indices, price losses are to be expected, which could also have a negative impact on Bitcoin prices.

US employment report and US unemployment rate at the end of the week

Friday, June 02, 2023: At 2:30 p.m. (CET), the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) figures for the month of May. In the previous month, the number of 230,000 new jobs was well above the expert forecast of 160,000. Despite strong figures in the previous month, the experts again expect only 160,000 new jobs to be created in May. If the analysts’ expectations are met or even undercut, a price correction on the stock market should be planned as an initial reaction, since the danger of a recession in the US economy would increase further. Another strong labor market report, with numbers above expert forecasts, should continue to fuel the positive price development on the US financial market. The crypto market could also continue to stabilize in the wake of good job data.

At the same time, the US unemployment rate for the month of May will be announced. The market experts’ estimate is 3.5 percentage points. In April, the unemployment rate fell from 3.5 percent to an all-time low of 3.4 percent, despite fewer non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate remained resilient despite persistently weak data from the real estate and construction sectors. Fed Chairman Powell’s forecast that an impending US recession could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate towards 4.5 percent has not yet been confirmed. Should the unemployment rate come in above analysts’ forecasts, investors may want to take more profits after the recent price gains. On the other hand, if the positive trend continues and the unemployment rate remains at its historical lows, investors should take this positively and catapult the stock indices further north. The chances of a price recovery on the crypto market should then also increase further.

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