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Solana analysis – Buy side is attempting a breakout

4 min read

After Solana (SOL) corrected to the important price mark of 13.08 US dollars in the course of the sell-off on June 10, the bulls were able to initiate a countermovement at the last second and avert a price slide to the price level at the beginning of the year. Since then, SOL price has rallied more than 57 percent to the $19.52-$20.38 turquoise resistance area. In addition to a chart-technically overdue counter-reaction, the launch of a new liquid staking platform on Solana also had a positive effect on the price development. In addition, the SEC-related sell-off of various altcoins on the Robinhood trading platform could now be over without having caused any lasting damage to the price. The turquoise chart area, together with the moving average of the last 200 days (MA200) (blue), now represents the first strong chart-technical hurdle for the buyer side. Despite the calming of the news situation, only a recapture of this cross-resist will brighten the chart-technical picture for the bulls. On the downside, $16.00 must now be defended in order not to endanger the coming weeks and the existing recovery trend.

Course analysis Solana (SOL) 06.07.2023
Course analysis based on the pair of values SOL/USD on Binance

Solana: Bullish price targets for the next few weeks

Bullish price targets: 19.52 USD/20.38 USD, 21.76 USD/22.23 USD, 23.91 USD, 25.99 USD, 26.58 USD/27.12 USD, 28.06 USD, 30.60 USD, 34.12 USD, 36.87 USD/39.01 USD

After Solana was able to rise to the upper edge of the turquoise zone as part of the Bitcoin breakout attempt, the failed breakout of the crypto key currency also caused the SOL course to set back. For now, however, the EMA50 (orange) appears to be acting as support. Even a setback to the orange zone around 17 US dollars should be used by courageous investors for a first entry.

However, only when Solana can break out of the turquoise chart area at the end of the day can a trend-following movement up to the Golden Pocket at 22.03 US dollars be planned. If the high from June at 22.23 US dollars is then also pulverized, a directional decision can be expected at the cross resist from the upper edge of the trend channel and horizontal resistance at 23.91 US dollars. In the first attempt, Solana should bounce off here.

If the buyer side succeeds in overcoming this chart area in the long term, the area around the April high of 25.99 US dollars will come back into the focus of investors. That would put Solana back within striking distance of its February highs of between $26.58 and $27.12. In addition to the higher-level Golden Pocket, the low from June 2022 can also be found here. For the time being, this area represents the maximum bullish price target that can be expected for the coming trading weeks.

Solana: Bearish price targets for the next few weeks

Bearish price targets: 18.67 USD, 17.71 USD/16.96 USD, 16.00 USD, 14.42 USD, 13.60 USD/12.81 USD, 11.26 USD, 10.94 USD, 9.57 USD, 8.01 USD

As long as the SOL price remains capped below the turquoise zone, the bears remain in charge. If the recent weeks bullish attempt is parried and Solana slips back below the EMA50 at $18.45, the correction will widen again towards $17.71. If Solana shows no bullish reaction at the top of the orange support zone, the move will extend to the bottom of that support area at $16.96. Thus, a retest of the low of March 10th at 16.00 US dollars is to be planned for.

A short-term directional decision can be expected here for the coming weeks of trading. If Solana falls below this support at the end of the day, falling back below the supertrend in the daily chart, a retest of the support at $14.42 is likely. The bulls were able to defend this price mark several times in June at the daily closing price. In the first touch, the SOL price should bounce north again and encourage investors to get into Solana. If the SOL price falls below this price level, the yellow support zone between $13.56 and $12.81 comes into focus. The lower edge of the downtrend channel can also be found here. The buyer side has to be there to stop the sell-off momentum.

However, if there is a sustained break of this support, the corrective move will expand again towards the $11.00 support line. Solana would have given back all profits from 2023. If the SOL price does not clearly turn north here and then tends to remain weak, a price slide into the green support zone between $9.57 and the previous year’s low of $8.02 can no longer be ruled out. Such a course correction can only be planned if the Bitcoin price also drops significantly and tends towards 20,000 US dollars.

Looking at the indicators

The RSI is currently showing bearish divergences on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. In the daily chart, however, both indicators, RSI and MACD, have generated new buy signals. As long as Solana can defend the mark of 16.00 US dollars per daily closing price, higher prices should be planned over the coming weeks.

In the weekly chart, the RSI has recently made it back into the neutral zone between 45 and 55. The MACD was also able to negate the threatening short signal for the time being, but only shows a weak buy signal as it continues to move below the 0 line.


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