Bitcoin bull market soon to be over? Analysts see first bad signs for BTC!
3 min readAt the center of the current discussion about Bitcoin is the striking activity of larger crypto cohorts. According to NeuroInvest Research, the group of addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin in particular saw a notable increase of 66 percent. This steady increase in activity across the larger cohorts reinforces the structural resilience of price movements and suggests continued confidence in the cryptocurrency.
Nevertheless, other indicators within the analysis of Bitcoin show a reversing momentum for the further Bitcoin price forecast.
Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Increased Activity and Signs of Accumulation
A current significant trend in BTC is the shift of Bitcoin from exchanges to private wallets. The ongoing outflows exceed the inflows. This development makes it clear that investors are developing a preference for holding BTC rather than selling it. This tendency should reduce immediate selling pressure and have an increasingly positive impact on short-term liquidity in the market.
In this context, the bull phase appears to be continuing. The inflows into ETFs continue to exceed expectations. With increasingly speculative behavior in the perpetual futures markets, market sentiment among traders remains correspondingly euphoric.
Despite signs of a cautious revaluation of some coins due to slight price setbacks in the previous weeks, the high demand for liquidity seems to be keeping the ‘volatility dragon’, often dubbed by traders, asleep.
This means that even after the strong increases in the entire crypto market, a consolidation of cryptocurrencies could now occur. In this case, this illustrates the resilience of the coins and their price movements, even over a longer period of time.
$BTC Onchain Weekly
Larger cohort activity continues swelling, i.e. 1k-10k cohort w/ a 66% uptickThese continuous + trends in larger cohorts amplifies the structural durability of price action pic.twitter.com/DXqiiq1a2n
— NeuroInvest Research (@Neuro__Invest) February 22, 2024
Overall, the on-chain data and market indicators paint a picture of structural strength in the BTC market. The increased activity of large investors, combined with the tendency to hold rather than sell and positive market liquidity, is currently supporting Bitcoin’s upward trend.
Bitcoin in a Bear Grip: An On-Chain Analysis
But not everything shines just with BTC. Analysts are now also beginning to recognize the first dark sides of the strong price developments. As a well-known analyst in the crypto community, On-Chain College recently shared a disturbing statistic:
Excluding BTC which hasn’t moved in more than a decade, the share of supply in profit has fallen to historic lows.
Accordingly, only 32.73% of the circulating supply is currently in profit. This value is lower than that in previous bear markets. So this development makes it clear that when market bottoms occur during times of maximum pain, we could be right there, or at least very close to it.
The analysis of the current BTC market supports the analyzes of the upcoming phase of consolidation.
The Depth of Holders’ Pain: Do Bitcoin ETFs Make a Difference for BTC?
While the on-chain data situation is somewhat bleak, a look at the development of Bitcoin ETFs offers a more differentiated picture. The renowned ETF analyst James Seyffart highlights what the “Cointucky Derby” of Bitcoin ETFs has been like since their introduction.
Data provided by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that despite fluctuations in the overall market, overall volumes and inflows into the various Bitcoin ETFs reflect high investor engagement and interest in the asset class.
