Famous analyst PlanB is back with yet another prediction. Through his Twitter account, the analyst reinforced that BTC will reach $100,000. This time, however, the analyst projected a new date: 2023.
About a year ago, PlanB claimed that BTC would hit six figures this year. Now, the forecast has been delayed by more than a year. To estimate the new deadline, PlanB once again used the stock-to-flow (S2F) model as a reference.
However, the analyst’s track record is quite erratic. In fact, PlanB hit several monthly forecasts throughout 2021. But the target number did not arrive, which cast some discredit on the model.
Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100K in 2023. pic.twitter.com/NHqoRpEmUl— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 14, 2022
New date for $100k – 2023
According to PlanB, both the S2F and the logarithmic regression of the model are in line with the evolution in the price of BTC. In this sense, the new projection estimates that BTC will reach $100,000 sometime between 2023 and 2024.
Interestingly, the period corresponds to the pre-halving years, the next cut in the BTC reward. The upcoming halving will reduce issuance to 3,125 BTC per block.
In addition, PlanB compared BTC S2F with other assets such as gold, whose S2F is around 60 and market value at $10 trillion and real estate. Meanwhile, BTC’s S2F is 100, but its current market cap is ten times less than gold.
S2F is a model that uses the total supply of an asset compared to the number of new units issued. The higher the S2F, the lower the impact of new units on the total value. Thus, the asset tends to become scarcer and, consequently, more valuable.
“It would really surprise me if BTC will have a lower market cap than gold after the next halving, when BTC’s S2F is above 100,” the analyst said.
Between successes and errors
The S2F model started to gain a lot of traction in the BTC market precisely with the popularity of PlanB. However, the general idea of the model was that BTC would reach $100K by December 2021.
Obviously this did not happen, which increased criticism of the model. In fact, many investors began to abandon the model in their analyses.
Because of the backlash, PlanB decided to create another model, which he called the “floor model” or “worst-case model”, which has high accuracy for several months in a row. For several months in 2021, the price of the cryptocurrency closed at quite accurate levels in relation to analysis.
But this model also predicted that BTC would hit $98k in November and $135k in December 2021. These models also failed, which cast further doubt on the accuracy of PlanB.
These failures did not deter the analyst, who remains steadfast in the six-figure forecast. Now we’ll have to wait at least another year to see if PlanB gets it right.