28.06.21 Technical analysis of BTC / USD – the fifth support test, what will follow?

Monthly close is approaching and with it the impending confirmation of a three-candle bear formation Evening Star Doji, which could just cause another rinse, which we have been waiting for a long time. So we have to watch the monthly chart, because if the June close ends below $ 37,000, I would venture to say that BTC will still react during July.

However, if the price closes above $ 37,000, we probably won’t move anywhere during the summer holidays. In any case, we will not analyze the monthly chart until Thursday, as there are still three days until close. Therefore, it would be premature to assess the current form.

BTC short positions

Before we get on the daily BTC chart, I want to show that someone picked up over 23,000 BTCs in one afternoon on Friday. Specifically, near the key level of $ 30,000. Unfortunately, in connection with previous developments, it is not at all clear to me what was the intention. It is certain that in the first two weeks of June, someone strong enough took a considerable amount of BTC into short positions.

Then he got rid of everything in one week, but he picked up almost the same amount of BTC on Friday afternoon. And again, over the weekend, he got rid of most. I honestly don’t understand what this is all about. Originally, I was of the opinion that it was a preparation for a big short by one entity that has significant market power. But now development doesn’t make any sense to me.

As for long positions, they are still on all time high and generally rise slightly. With longmen holding over 50,000 BTC and still close to $ 30,000, that’s a problem. Popularly speaking, everyone is already in the long run and there is no one to shop. How then can BTC be able to expand?

Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD

Now we finally get to the daily BTC chart. As I pointed out in the last analysis, BTC reacted completely inadequately to Tuesday’s close. From which I then deduced that the market has no power at all to reflect and that it probably will not even reach Point of Control.

Which was confirmed during Friday, because there was a small sale, which caused it already fifth testing key support over the last few weeks. However, the bulls were again successful in the defense and stopped the decline in close proximity to 30,000 USD. Saturday has a candle almost identical form like Tuesday, is just smaller.

Volumes were slightly above average. Sunday was rather calmer most of the time, but in the evening the shoppers started to talk and were successful with a smaller reflection of the course. It’s no glory, but better than Wednesday and Thursday candles. Volumes also slightly above average. If we are to start from this price action, we must again calculate that we will test Point of Control.

The market is clearly moving towards this. Once we test the POC, another meta-key resistance is $ 42,000. And then it is clear that BTC will actually remain in the range of $ 30,000-42,000 until the beginning of the summer holidays. In the end, it doesn’t surprise me at all, because the previous drop was quite massive.

Therefore, a month ago it made sense for the market to consolidate in a larger band, and only then did a more decisive movement take place. In addition, I am convinced at the moment that the market is just waiting for the monthly close. Even though the so-called cucumber season is coming, we have a great chance that the beginning of July will be more dynamic. Otherwise, we can look forward to a two-month fruitless slap.

Indicators

For the second time, the daily RSI surpassed the area of ​​around 42 points. Therefore, the curve is slowly approaching the resistance diagonal and I am very interested in how BTC will react here. The MACD eventually bullish cross. We will see if the market takes the signal into account.

In conclusion

As follows from the previous text, so far everything suggests that we will stay in the monitored price range for the remaining few days. In short, it can be deduced that the market is just waiting for the monthly chart to close. Then we could expect a great reaction, after all, we are talking about a monthly time frame. On the other hand, we can wait until the second week of July.

ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. Cryptheory team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!