29.06.21 Technical analysis of BTC / USD – how long will we remain in the key zone?
4 min readTable of Contents
In Monday’s analysis on BTC, I completely forgot about the weekly close, which is logically very important for us, which we will fix today. Otherwise, after a long time, I looked at other analyzes on the Tradingview platform to see what bias prevails. I was a little surprised to find that the bias was definitely bull.
I expected it to be 50 to 50. So it’s interesting to see that after a drop of more than 55%, the market still believes that we will reach all time high. This is not to say that their goal will not be met, but objectively the market does not offer us enough to be so confident about a bright tomorrow. As I said yesterday, the monthly chart threatens to confirm the three-candle bear formation Evening Star Doji. The market is probably waiting for a monthly close.
Current situation at 1W TF BTC / USD
Weekly candle closed the week unquestionably in a bull form, as it is typical Pin Bar if you want Hammer. It is important that the lower wick of the candle penetrates the key support and at the same time it is the current low of the whole downtrend structure that has been running since mid-April. Therefore, there are natural considerations as to whether BTC is really not trying to reach the middle ground.
Personally, however, I see a problem in that volumes were exactly the same average last week as the previous ones. Therefore, in terms of volumes, last week’s price action acts as a mere consolidation, not as an attempt to form the bottom of a ten-week decline. However, the volumes on Binance are definitely enough above average, the same is true for the BTC index (BLX).
So is it possible that bears have at least for the summer holidays? The truth is that Pin Bar is on 4H, a daily chart and a weekly chart. We must not take this lightly, and I must admit that this is an obvious effort to keep the $ 30,000. However, the monthly graph has more weight, and if it is confirmed three-candle bear formation, it’s a huge threat to BTC.
Current situation at 1D TF BTC / USD
Unsurprisingly, the daily chart was only brief, BTC didn’t move at all in those 24 hours. We still persist over key support and there is no tendency to test at least Point of Control, which doesn’t surprise me in any way. A few days at the end of the month, it is indeed typical for the market to freeze and wait to enter a new one.
In any case, it is positive that buyers try to keep the exchange rate above the support band, because consolidation directly in the band is quite risky. Popularly speaking, all you have to do is poke and the bulls don’t have that much time to react adequately. Therefore, it is better if the price stays somewhere close.
For the sake of completeness, I “deleted” the bear flag and returned the ordinary box or the business zone to the chart. And the middle of that band is exactly the level where BTC is currently staying (about $ 35,000). So it’s no coincidence that there are so many of those stops.
Indicators
The RSI values are slowly rising, but we have not yet exceeded even 50 points, which somehow corresponds to the testing of the drawn resistance diagonal. There is a bullish cross on MACD, but BTC hasn’t reacted much yet.
In conclusion
The view of the chart is beginning to improve, because the forms of individual close are objectively bullish. The market has shown us from many time frames that they will probably not let go of the 30,000 USD. However, the above does not change the fact that the shoppers did not show almost any major initiative and especially the monthly chart does not look good.
Respectively, there is also a Pin Bar, which does not exclude in any way a three-candle bear formation that exists at the top. However, the whole summary of the mentioned Pin Bars can really signal that we have a potential medium-term bottom ahead of us. Therefore, it is good to mentally prepare for the fact that we will remain in the drawn business zone even during the summer holidays.
ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. Cryptheory team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!
