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The positive court ruling in favor of Ripple, in combination with falling US consumer and producer prices, caused significant price gains on the crypto market. The XRP course and other altcoins such as Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATIC) shot north with double-digit price gains in an initial reaction last Thursday, July 13. The Bitcoin price also reached a new high for the year at 31,862 US dollars, but was subsequently unable to confirm this bullish breakout. On the last trading day of the week, profit-taking increased despite good US economic data.

The US stock indices gave back their initial gains and also caused price consolidations on the crypto market. Bitcoin corrected back by around 4 percentage points within two hours of trading to the lower edge of the sideways range of the last three trading weeks. The BTC price only stabilized in the 30,000 USD area and recovered to around 30,300 USD over the weekend. Despite the positive news, the bearish scenario of a short-term price correction discussed in the last Bitcoin price analysis is still not off the table for the time being.

The following economic data will be relevant this week

The trading week starts tomorrow Tuesday with fresh US retail data. The latest consumer prices for Europe and the pre-release number of newly granted US building permits will follow at midweek. The following day, the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia presented the latest data from the Philly-Fed manufacturing index. The preliminary estimates of the current sales figures for existing properties on the US housing market will also be presented on Thursday. Fresh quarterly figures from the major US bank Bank of America on Tuesday and from car manufacturer Tesla on Wednesday evening also provide further insights into the economic situation in the USA.

US retail sales to start the week

Tuesday, July 18, 2023: At 2:30 p.m. (CET), the US Census Bureau will publish the final US retail sales for the previous month of June. Retail sales are a relevant indicator for assessing the consumer mood of private households. After forecasts had been missed several times, the figures for the previous month were again slightly above expectations of -0.1 percent at +0.3 percent. For the past trading month of June, market observers are assuming that retail sales will stabilize again. An increase of +0.5 percent compared to the previous month is expected. If the estimates are reached or even surpassed, there are signs that consumer sentiment will improve. Rising US consumer behavior could also accelerate the correction of the US dollar index (DXY) and provide tailwinds for the crypto market. In the previous month, US stock indices and Bitcoin price benefited from better than forecast US retail sales. If, on the other hand, the expert estimate is undercut and consumer behavior declines again, the price consolidation that began last Friday could solidify.

Mid-week inflation data for the euro zone

Wednesday, July 19, 2023: At 11:00 a.m. (CET), Eurostat publishes the final consumer prices for Europe in June. For the final data, the experts expect inflation to fall from 6.1 percent to 5.5 percent. As a result, consumer prices in Europe would continue to fall, as they did in the USA. If the inflation rate continues to fall as forecast, the European stock market should initially react positively, as it did after the publication of the US inflation data. This should subsequently have a stabilizing effect on the crypto market. If, on the other hand, EU consumer prices are higher than analysts’ forecasts, this would be a setback in the fight against the ongoing inflation problem in the euro zone. Persistently high inflation rates in the countries of Europe would further exacerbate the recession problems in Europe. The European financial markets could give back their gains from the previous week and also have a negative impact on Bitcoin prices.

At 2:30 p.m. (CET), the Census Bureau will present the preliminary estimates for US building permits for the month of June. The number of permits granted is considered a leading indicator of the health of the US real estate market. In the previous month, the final number of new building permits was again slightly above expert expectations. As a result, the US stock indices were friendly, which also benefited the Bitcoin price. The analysts expect the real estate market to stagnate in June. Compared to the previous month, market observers are forecasting a marginal decline from 1.496 million in May to 1.495 million in June. If the forecast is met or even exceeded, the US stock market and with it the Bitcoin price could increase in value. However, if the number of building permits issued is below expert expectations and the real estate sector cools down again, a price correction in the US stock indices and thus the probability of a price consolidation on the crypto market cannot be ruled out.

Philly Fed manufacturing index

Thursday, July 20, 2023: At 2:30 p.m. (CET) the latest manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed will be presented. The Philly Fed Index is considered a leading indicator for the important Purchasing Managers Index ISM. Index values above 0 indicate a positive business development of the industrial companies, while a fall below 0 means a negative business development. Although the expert forecasts were slightly missed in the previous month, they were still better than in the weak first quarter of 2023. Compared to the previous month, the analysts expect an improvement from -13.7 to -9.7 in July. If the market participants’ forecasts are met or even beaten, this would be a first indication of a stabilization in the business prospects of US industrial companies.

As a result, the US stock market could react positively, as the probability of a recession starting in the near future would further decrease. The crypto market should also take this development positively. If the index is well below expectations, as it was last on April 20, this would be an indication that the US economy could weaken again in the coming months after better data recently. Significantly missed numbers should subsequently lead to a correction on the stock and crypto market.

Later in the afternoon at 4 p.m. (CET) the latest sales figures for existing properties for the past month of June will be presented. After recently rising sales figures, the analysts are expecting a slowdown again in their latest estimates. Compared to the previous month, a decline from the last 4.30 million to 4.23 million houses is expected. If the published figures are able to beat the estimate, this should put further pressure on the US dollar. A sustained weakening of the US currency could then have a positive effect on the prices of Bitcoin and Co. If the sales figures for existing properties fall again, as market experts expect, the US dollar could recover from its recent course correction and generate selling pressure on the US stock market and on the crypto market.