26.06.21 Technical analysis XAU / USD (gold) – the situation is not favorable for yellow metal, but the chances still exist

Today we will take another “beat” from BTC, as we will focus on gold (XAU / USD). In a week-old analysis, we analyzed quite comprehensively what happened on the market. Respectively, what caused such a deep fall and a complete break in the bull structure that formed in the graph for us for several weeks. As I said in yesterday’s stream, we must first and foremost monitor the prices of other commodities, especially oil, which in itself can tell us whether or not the Federal Reserve’s economic projection is watered or not.

The most authoritative is, of course, measured inflation, which, however, we obtain only with a delay. However, we can monitor commodity prices in real time. If the new data in the coming weeks / months contradicts what the Fed has released, expectations about the future inflation that yellow metal needs may change radically. Therefore, gold is not lost by any chance. There is still a chance.

Current situation at 1D TF XAU / USD (gold)

In that one week, the gold didn’t get much anywhere, if you look closely at each candle, you’ll find that every attempt at a bounce was quick. rejected. Which can be easily recognized from the upper ones wicks day candles. Thus, gold stagnated throughout the week and remained in a rather weak position. Even no retracement, there was no correction of those big losses.

Which would make sense after such a deep and dynamic drop in prices. Thus, the price remained at a support level of USD 1,770 / ounce for most of the trading week, and on Friday we could observe another modest effort to bounce back. However, I don’t really believe that the market will move anywhere. On the other hand, I am of the opinion that a short retracement is suitable.

Personally, I would like to see how gold reacts to testing the upper wall of the drawn channel. The reaction as such would be very important to us. In any case, it is positive that the current support holds. But under these circumstances, I do not believe that the level will last. The biggest logic is the decline after the annual low to 1,678 USD / ounce, where the structure is double bottom.

There will be a clear break in bread and I can imagine that the level will be defended. However, gold needs expectations to change again. To do this, we need to obtain data that contradicts the Federal Reserve’s projection.

Indicators

The bottom of the daily RSI is currently at 37 points and the ensuing performance somehow shows that the market is not really strong. As for the MACD, there is still a strong enough negative momentum.

In conclusion

By no means do we have to break a stick over gold. Although the market has totally gone bad for us, as long as the exchange rate is above the S / R level of 1,678 USD / ounce, there is a chance that there will be a turnaround. But that turnaround must arrange new data that will change expectation and popularly speaking steps on economic projection that the Fed served us more than a week ago. However, if we fall below those 1,678 USD / ounce, gold has a problem and will probably remain declining throughout 2021.

ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. Cryptheory team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!