Bitcoin’s NVT Price at an All-Time High: Willy Woo
2 min readOn-chain analyst Willy Woo has revealed that while bitcoin is yet to scale the heady heights of late 2017, it has already exceeded its 2017 performance in one important metric.
Explaining via Twitter on Oct 27, Woo revealed that bitcoin’s Network Value Transaction Ratio (NVT) is now at its highest-ever level.
According to Woo, this movement has been driven by “underlying long term investors,” which indicates that bitcoin’s price will shortly achieve another all-time high (ATH).
Woo’s prediction comes at a time when bitcoin is performing rather bullishly, having surged more than 36% since September to break $13,800 on Oct 28 for a 2020 year-to-date (YTD) high.
While we wait for BTC post an all-time-high, both on the monthly chart of $14k and the 20k prior top. I'll point out that the organic valuation under NVT Price from underlying long term investors is already at an all-time-high. Price will follow. pic.twitter.com/s5uVN5EtM2
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 27, 2020
The Importance of NVT
According to DCResearch, NVT is a metric invented by Willy Woo to determine the extent to which a digital asset’s price undervalues or overvalues it. It is calculated by dividing its total market cap by its daily (USD) transaction volume.
The larger the result, the likelier it is to experience heightened investment demand either because of a speculative bubble or because of a high growth phase. Woo explains NVT on his website:
“When Bitcoin’s NVT is high, it indicates that its network valuation is outstripping the value being transmitted on its payment network, this can happen when the network is in high growth and investors are valuing it as a high return investment, or alternatively when the price is in an unsustainable bubble.”
Looking ahead to what comes next for bitcoin’s market movement, Woo believes that the “organic valuation” of bitcoin based on its NVT, which currently stands at just over $10,000, will eventually push the price to a new all-time high.
Bitcoin’s Bullish October
BeinCrypto reported on Oct 26 that bitcoin recorded its highest weekly close since January 2018, closing at $13,039. The chart below shows how it has risen dramatically (since a sharp slump in September) to highs only briefly seen in the 2017 bull run.
A variety of factors have driven this move. On Oct 27, a Grayscale Investments survey revealed that 55% of respondents were interested in bitcoin.
Earlier on Oct 4, Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor explained that his decision to move $425 million of his company’s cash reserves into bitcoin was because he considers bitcoin to be a “harder asset than gold.”
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