Huobi Du Jun, a co-founder of the leading cryptocurrency exchange, told CNBC that the next BTC bull cycle may not come until 2024 or 2025. He justifies this by traditional BTC cycles, which are associated with the halving effect.
Halving is a process in which the remuneration of BTC miners for one mined block (approximately 10 minutes) is automatically reduced by exactly half every approximately four years (always after the extraction of 210,000 blocks). Thus, while in the first 4 years of BTC’s existence, 50 BTC were mined every 10 minutes, for the next four years it was only 25 BTC and, for example, between May 2020 and March 2024 it is only 6.25 BTC. From March 2024, it will then be only 3,125 BTC.
When these automated remuneration adjustments for miners are compared to the development of the BTC price, many see the context and suggest that halving cycles are also the trigger for the bullrun phase – the period when the BTC price has the greatest tendency to rise. Du Jun from Huobi thinks it will be the same this time.
“If this circle continues, we are now in the early stages of a bear market.” Du stated. ,“It’s really hard to predict exactly what will happen, because there are many other factors that can affect the market, such as geopolitical issues, including the war or the recent Covid.” stated, then, to state that it was relatively convincing:“After this cycle, we will not be able to welcome another bull market until the end of 2024 until the beginning of 2025.”
A different cycle than the previous ones?
Thus, while Du Jun believes that the BTC cycles associated with halvings will be repeated, it should be noted that the current bullrun is significantly different from the previous ones. The previous cycles culminated in a sharp rise in the price of BTC and a subsequent weakening of up to 80 resp. 90 percent compared to an all-time high.
On the contrary, the current cycle has so far shown two tops (May 2021 price of 64 thousand USD and November 2021 price of 69,000 USD) and at the same time completely different behavior of investors according to onchain data. Unlike previous cycles, long-term investors do not currently sell their BTC at all, and wallets holding BTC longer than one year hold more than 60% of all these BTC.
At the same time, in previous cycles, BTC was sent to exchanges on a large scale, while we are currently following the continuing trend of their outflow from exchanges. This may indicate that the current market situation is significantly different from previous cycles and therefore cannot be completely relied on in the past.