Bitcoin can boast of being by far the best investment in the last ten years. No other kind of property achieved such appreciation. From the bottom of 2011 to the top in 2017, the BTC gained approximately 860,000% and at the time of writing this profit was approximately 325,000%. Such a dizzying appreciation was only for those who discovered the qualities of BTC practically at the beginning of its existence.
Logically, this raises the question of how far the BTC can cost. Estimates vary. Skeptics see the price of the BTC heading to zero. Fans of decentralization, in turn, estimate prices in the order of millions of dollars. That is why it is difficult to find sober estimates. One of the most reliable indicators is logarithmic growth. In the following figure you can see a meaningful estimate of the bitcoin price growth.
Here we see what the prediction of bitcoin price growth looks like. Blue is the BTC price, green lines indicate the boundaries within which the BTC price is (for now) and white represents approximate halving data. Halving is a reduction in remuneration for a busy block, which in fact means a reduction in inflation. The closest halving is likely to be in May 2020 and the rewards for the mined blocks will be reduced from 12.5 to 6.25.
Logarithmic price development has specific characteristics. The most important characteristic is an extremely fast, initial growth that gradually stabilizes. This is seen in percentage profits. If you invested $ 100 in 2011, you can retire today. If you invested $ 100 in 2016, you would rather have a new car. Percentage gains are gradually diminishing, but there is clearly a growth trend that is not worth doubting. In market environments, the saying is that your trend is your friend.
The Bitcoin price is cyclical, as can be seen in the graph above. After extreme growth, there will be a slump, accumulation and then further growth. This cycle has been repeated twice and so far it seems that this trend will continue. Cyclical growth is responsible for just mentioned halvings, when the supply drops sharply. Decreasing supply leads to price increases, price increases leads to media coverage, media coverage leads to a rush of masses, and this leads to the creation of an economic bubble that subsequently collapses. We are currently at the time of the so-called second accumulation (the first accumulation was between $ 3,000 and $ 4,000 and the second is between $ 6,000 and $ 7,000).
As regards price developments, investors are most interested in where the price goes in the current cycle and how far the price can rise in the long run. First, let’s look at the current cycle. If the previous four-year cycle were repeated, in 2022 we could reach a level of about $ 100,000 for one bitcoin. Here, reasonable predictions range from $ 50,000 to $ 300,000 per coin. However, there is a significant probability that cycles will increase and a significant group of analysts believe that the BTC will not reach another peak until 2023 or 2024.
In the long run, the price is gradually heading to around half a million dollars per coin. This long-term prediction is based on a logarithmic function and it is very difficult to tell whether it will become a reality. Cryptocurrencies are extremely progressive industries and are developing very quickly. Therefore, it is difficult to make long-term predictions, but logarithmic growth seems to be the most likely option.