Peter Brandt: The impact of halving on Bitcoin is overestimated
2 min read
Famous trader Peter Brandt explained why he is convinced that the impact of the block reward halving is less relevant for Bitcoin’s (BTC) price than most believe.
Brandt explained that he considers the daily trading volume of Bitcoin to be its real supply. Because of this, he believes that the daily reduction of mined Bitcoins is equivalent to about 2/100th of 1% of the real supply.
Brandt concluded that the reduction of new supply due to halving is “chump change” when considered as a percentage of the real Bitcoin supply. Still, some Twitter users questioned the logic behind those tweets.
Bitcoin halving = #Grossly_over_rated
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) March 17, 2020
The daily trading volume of BTC = the REAL supply of BTC
The daily reduction of mined $BTCs (NEW supply) equals approx 2/100th of 1% of REAL supply
Reduction of NEW supply b/c of halving as % of REAL supply = chump change
One Twitter user pointed out a flaw in considering Bitcoin’s daily trading volume as its real supply. He explained that — according to Brandt’s logic — if he and a friend of his bought and sold 1 BTC 21 million times then they would be holding Bitcoin’s entire supply of 21 million BTC.
Looking at trading volume as a measure for supply is wrong. If I and a friend buy and sell 1 btc back and forth 21M times are we in fact holding the entire supply of 21M btc?
— R0b5ter (@R0bster1) March 17, 2020
Another user explained why he believes miners to be much more relevant.
Miners are the largest pool of daily sellers my friend. They lose 50% of their daily ability supply to sell. Less sellers with same or growing demand from buyers helps price appreciate.
— Eric Cassidy (@ecassidy47) March 17, 2020
