Why this on-chain analyst targets a $300,000 BTC in 2021
3 min readA popular on-chain analyst said in a recent podcast appearance that BTC would reach the $300,000 mark later this year as institutional buying continues to grow in recent times.
A $300,000 BTC
On-chain analyst Willy Woo is a trader like few others. He uses BTC’s own network data for predicting the market over colorful candlestick charts and obscure indicators.
Woo’s known for his big BTC estimates. He called for a six-figure BTC when few were convinced about the asset’s long-term success, pointing towards favorable blockchain data and transactional activity for those figures.
The reason for the numbers that #BTC returns is that it’s a new tech startup with critical mass. But instead of it competing for a weenie slice of the economy like say Amazon or Tesla, it’s competing for the water in which it swims. That’s at least 100x bigger. https://t.co/CoLoRQpL5P
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 1, 2021
In a recent podcast, Woo reiterated his famous prediction for BTC, one that pegs the asset at the $300,000-$400,000 price range at the end of this year.
“We’re seeing a net flow of coins from participants that have been traditionally more or less speculating or buying over the short term and then selling,” he stated, adding that such “new” investors were buying and storing the coins for the long-term.
“That’s been a very big driver of this bull market, that there’s been strong buying,” explained Woo.
The comments are not far-fetched. BTC has seen strong buying over the past year from the likes of retail investors, institutional funds, and technology companies alike.
Some like electric carmaker Tesla and business analytics firm MicroStrategy have picked up billions of dollars worth of the asset, while others like Chinese photo-sharing firm Meitu have invested tens of millions into BTC.
Institutional crypto fund Grayscale’s ‘Trust’ products have seen big money as well. The firm’s BTC Trust (GBTC)—an exchange-traded product that holds a small amount of BTC for each share sold—has seen holdings balloon to over $36 billion in the past year.
04/30/21 UPDATE: Net Assets Under Management, Holdings per Share, and Market Price per Share for our Investment Products.
Total AUM: $46.7 billion$BTC $BCH $ETH $ETC $ZEN $LTC $XLM $ZEC $BAT $LINK $MANA $FIL $LPT pic.twitter.com/DT6t9FV9Cw
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) April 30, 2021
“Bullish impulse”
On the podcast, Woo said that past BTC cycles tend to have a ‘bullish impulse’ after each ‘halving’ event, an inbuilt feature of the network that reduces rewards by half (roughly) every four years.
“Essentially that gives us a little shove on the price if you’ve got half the amount of sell power from new coins being mined, you get a bullish impulse, and in all the past cycles it seems that that bullish impulse manifests into this crazy run up,” said Woo, adding:
“The last one was 2017, [it] took us from $1,000 to $20,000. It tends to peter out around the fourth quarter, around December.”
“So ball-parking, December, [based on] that top-cap model of mine: It could be anywhere in the $300,000 to $400,000 range, it might even go higher,” he stated.
However, Woo’s still expressing caution: “But we need to see how it performs over the next six months,” he says.
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