01.07.21 Technical analysis BTC / USD – Evening Star Doji confirmed?

It was extremely important for the market to have a daily close over the Point of Control. The daily closing price meant the monthly closing price. However, Point of Control failed to break through the course, which implies confirmation of the three-candle bear formation Evening Star Doji.

At this point, it is necessary to maintain patience, because BTC can have a great response during July. Of course, we have no certainty that the signal from the monthly chart will be applied. But we cannot ignore it, because it is an extremely important signal. After all, it’s a monthly chart, it has weight.

Current situation at 1M TF BTC / USD

In order not to confirm the Evening Star Doji on the monthly chart, it was necessarily close the price above 37,341 USD, ie above the Point of Control, which we monitor on the daily chart. The price eventually closed at $ 35,000, confirming the three-candle formation valid. Otherwise, the June candle itself has a similar form to the ones we have discussed many times for 1W, 1D and 4H.

If we didn’t have the three-candle formation in the chart, I would be inclined to believe that the $ 30,000 is the medium-term bottom. Then we could also count on the price rising above key resistance to $ 42,000. However, in these circumstances, I am not inclined to do so, and most importantly, I consider BTC to be very risky. Respectively, the whole of July threatens that the market will hear the signal.

I don’t want to scare me with that, but I need to realize how BTC is at the moment. If you hear from anyone that BTC is about to shoot up, he’ll make it up. The market does not offer us any relevant signal from which to assume such a thing.

Indicators

The monthly RSI remains at about 58 points. There is therefore heap of space for a fall. If we go down anyway, we should expect a reflection around 45 points. After the end of the two previous bull trends, it was a definitive bottom and a continuation of the new bull cycle.

As for the monthly MACD, the curves point to a crossing. However, this process can take several months. However, once the bearish cross occurs, the bear occurs almost 100%. Therefore, if we receive a signal, it will first happen after the summer holidays.

In conclusion

We’ll see what happens. We have to be patient and wait for a decisive movement, to which we can then respond adequately. At the moment, there is a risk that the market will remain in the range of USD 30,000 – 42,000 throughout the summer holidays. So it is probably in our interest for BTC to hear the signal, which was confirmed on the monthly chart.

Of course, I understand that for many, falling below $ 30,000 is a complete horror. Unfortunately, people often forget that financial markets are tough and it is certainly not free money. Therefore, in the long run, I warn all readers that it is necessary to maintain healthy skepticism in connection with the view of the market.

ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. Cryptheory team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!